CBB: CUSA Conference Tournament Preview

Favorites (odds below +500)

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+110): At first glance, it’s very shocking to see Louisiana Tech have a much lower number compared to everyone else in the conference. A deeper dive shows that this team is the best rated by the metrics, and in a conference where everyone struggled on the road they performed the best. Louisiana Tech only lost 9 games and they were in all 9, their biggest margin of defeat was by 9 at New Mexico so this team can play with anyone. Their defense is their calling card, and if Vegas’s odds are accurate they could return to the tournament for the 1st time since 1991!

Liberty Flames (+400): The regular season didn’t go as expected for the Flames. They struggled a bit, especially on the road in conference play. The Flames in general lost a lot of close games, but now is when they can turn it around. They’re always tough to face in a tournament setting thanks to the slow paced 3-point heavy style of play Richie McKay’s squad plays with. Don’t count the Flames out!

Sam Houston Bearkats (+480): Sam Houston is a very interesting team. They weren’t really expected to be here entering the season or even during the season. The Bearkats don’t excel at much, but they got hot late winning their last 7 games which also completed a sweep of other contenders Louisiana Tech/Western Kentucky. Can they keep this going for conference tournament play? If so, these odds are a nice bargain.

Sleepers (+500 or above)

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+600): Western Kentucky has the best offense in the conference. They put up over 80 points a game and what makes them most dangerous is that they have a very deep rotation. They don’t play the best defense however and they enter the conference tournament with a 4 game losing streak. The losing streak isn’t a good omen but the Hilltoppers still have a good enough team to win the conference if they can right the ship.

UTEP Miners (+1500): Here’s the longshot pick and I considered Jacksonville State here as well. UTEP wasn’t consistent most of the year but they do enter the conference tournament on a 3 game win streak and deploy a defensive scheme that tries to force turnovers.

My Pick:

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+600): This is the toughest conference to pick, it’s such a toss up. The Vegas odds suggest Louisiana Tech, but getting such bad odds in a competitive league, on a team that hasn’t won in this setting since 1991 feels like bad business. It was between Western Kentucky and Liberty for me, I like Liberty’s style in this setting but in the end I’m betting on the Tops offense to get it done.