1: North Carolina Tar Heels
Best Tournament Moment: North Carolina has 6 national titles so there’s several moments to pick from, but their 1982 National title was a moment that created legacies. As all of us know, then freshman Michael Jordan hit the game winning shot to beat Georgetown. North Carolina has been a truly elite program since then and it was when a star, one of the most recognizable figures in basketball was born.
Why they can win it all: RJ Davis is really the glue that pieced this team together, they were extremely disjointed in a disappointing season last year and Davis has helped fix that. This program is just a couple years removed from a national title appearance so we know Hubert Davis can coach in the tournament.
Why they might not: There’s still some inconsistency on both ends of the floor. It’s been taken advantage of at times, especially on the defensive side in their 7 losses. Overall this feels like a team that’s one of the best, but they might not match up with someone like UConn.
Best case: North Carolina has one of the most favorable regions and the Tar Heels take advantage. They roll through to final 4 without hardly breaking a sweat. Once they get there they find they lucked out, instead of UConn they end up with Auburn and outscore the Tigers to move on to the championship game where the Tar Heels take down Houston to cut down the nets. It’s clear with 2 championship appearances that Hubert Davis’ bad 2023 was a fluke and that he’s ready to turn this program back into a dynasty. North Carolina fans also take joy in the fact that Duke is surprisingly bounced in the 2nd round and NC State is quickly dispatched by Texas Tech.
Worst case: North Carolina squanders the easy region. The Tar Heels wheeze past Howard in the opening game, but they crumble in their test against Tom Izzo and Michigan State. The Spartans upset the Tar Heels and suddenly after failing to get this team to the 2nd weekend everyone wonders if the 2022 tournament run was just a fluke. Making matters worse is the fact that Duke and NC State meet in the final 4.
16: Howard Bison
Best Tournament Moment: You’re looking at it. Howard has 3 previous tournament appearances and all 3 were losses that weren’t close at all. This is the first time the Bison have gone to back to back tournaments.
Why they can win it all: Experience matters and Howard has that. They are very accurate from 3, they don’t shoot many but you suspect they’ll need to shoot more of them in this one. Their head coach Kenneth Blakeney comes with some pedigree as well.
Why they might not: Howard can battle for a half most of the time but the Bison struggle in the 2nd half of games. Either letting them get away from them or losing game they were leading.
Best case: Howard’s experience pays off as the Bison dominate Wagner in the first 4 to get their first ever tournament win and set up a Jordan brand face off. Howard gets off to a great start, taking the lead on North Carolina into the locker room at halftime and captivating the nation. Things fall apart in the 2nd half but Howard has their March Madness moment.
Worst case: Howard doesn’t even get that far, the Bison get frustrated by Wagner’s slow pace and succumb to the Seahawks. Before anyone knew it their tournament is over.
16: Wagner Seahawks
Best Tournament Moment: Wagner has only made the tournament once before, back in 2003. The Seahawks were a 15 seed but weren’t competitive in a loss to Pitt.
Why they can win it all: Wagner plays at a staggeringly slow pace, the slowest in college basketball in fact. That alone can frustrate teams but they also rebound well. Sometimes you can overcome a talent disadvantage by simply being a ball hog.
Why they might not: Metrics don’t mean everything, but Wagner has by far the worst in the tournament. They finished 6th in the NEC and have only 7 total healthy players. It’s pretty astounding they made it this far.
Best case: Wagner uses their slow pace to frustrate Howard and it works to perfection. The Seahawks grab their first ever tournament win and celebrate. As an added bonus their slow pace allows them to hang with North Carolina long enough for people to notice. This wasn’t Wagner’s year but they’ve made a statement that they will return.
Worst case: Howard can start fast and that’s a dangerous territory for the Seahawks. They find themselves in a double digit deficit quickly in the first half and before most people notice they are already done.
8: Mississippi State Bulldogs
Best Tournament Moment: Mississippi State had a season for the ages in 1996. They surprisingly won the SEC tournament, then took it a step further and pulled off upsets over UConn and Cincinnati to make their first and only final 4 as a 5 seed.
Why they can win it all: Mississippi State has a very strong defense, one of the best in the SEC and overall. It’s not easy to get shots against these guys. They’ve got 2 stud players in freshman guard Josh Hubbard and big man Tolu Smith. Jans’ best New Mexico State team had a guard in Teddy Allen who could shoot it from anywhere at any time and that’s exactly what he has again with Hubbard.
Why they might not: This team is still rather limited on offense. Everything has to go through Hubbard and Smith or it doesn’t go at all. Any team that can contain those 2 can beat this team.
Best case: Defense is the Bulldogs corner stone and it helps them through March. They control the game and easily dispatch Michigan State in the opening round, and then pull off a huge stunner by upsetting North Carolina thanks to a huge game from Hubbard who is an instant March sensation. They get even luckier when they don’t have to face Alabama but instead get St Mary’s, allowing the Bulldogs to get to the elite 8 and even move on to the final 4, they meet their match against UConn there but this is already an incredible run for the Bulldogs.
Worst case: They drew a tough one going against Tom Izzo in March. Michigan State contains the Bulldogs dynamic duo early and Mississippi State quickly falls behind. They’re out of the tournament before anyone even remembers they made it. Just to make it worse, Alabama goes on a run to the final 4.
9: Michigan State Spartans
Best Tournament Moment: This one is obvious. 1979 brought one of the most epic national championships of all time when Magic Johnson led the Spartans to victory over Larry Bird and Indiana State. I’ll also note that Michigan State won the national title in 2000, which still stands as the Big Ten’s last national title.
Why they can win it all: This is a Tom Izzo coached team so they always have a chance. This team was preseason #4 for a reason they have the talent to play with anyone. Their offense can overwhelm opponents in the fast break and they have a pretty solid defense too.
Why they might not: Consistency is a major problem for the Spartans, it feels like they can hardly ever string multiple good games together. They don’t shoot the ball well even though they have players who could at any time.
Best case: January, February, Izzo, April. He pulls another March miracle with a surprise tournament run. Michigan State overwhelms Mississippi State early and then upsets North Carolina. Michigan State’s shooting issues aren’t much of a problem against Alabama because the Tide don’t defend well and they take down Arizona to get to the final 4. They get crushed by UConn once they get there but it was still a fantastic run that shows Izzo still has it, all while Michigan fans can do nothing but watch.
Worst case: Izzo is out of March magic. The Spartans throw up bricks once again and are beaten easily by Mississippi State in the first round. To the delight of Michigan fans everyone questions if the Spartans should have even made the tournament. Izzo decides his time is done and hangs it up, but by the time he does Michigan has already claimed first dibs on a better coach.
5: Saint Mary’s Gaels
Best Tournament Moment: Saint Mary’s has an elite 8 to their name. In 1959 they had a bye to the sweet 16 and defeated Idaho State there to go to the elite 8 where they lost to eventual national champion Cal.
Why they can win it all: Saint Mary’s has some skill sets that travel. They play great defense, force opponents to play at their slow tempo and crash the boards better than most teams. The Gaels can also make shots from deep to throw opponents into a panic.
Why they might not: There’s some growing skepticism that Saint Mary’s can contend with elite teams. They’re good at avoiding upset losses but the last couple years they get beaten by pretty large margins in the 2nd round. Overall athletic teams make them uncomfortable which may make the bad November/December start less of a fluke than we think.
Best case: Saint Mary’s gets the tournament off to a great start playing in a familiar arena in Spokane. They dominate from the tip against Grand Canyon and then get fortunate with a 2nd round matchup against Charleston who they handle too. Saint Mary’s bows out against North Carolina but it was still a great run for the Gaels.
Worst case: Saint Mary’s struggles to contain Tyon Grant-Foster who goes off for a big game. The Gaels once again fall behind and lose to out of conference competition leaving everyone questioning just how good they are.
12: Grand Canyon Antelopes
Best Tournament Moment: This might be their best moment already, they haven’t been competitive in either of their 2 tournament appearances, and the 12 seed is their best one yet.
Why they can win it all: This is a very well rounded team. Grand Canyon is led by a stud in Tyon Grant-Foster and a group of transfers who have all played well. They proved what they could do early in the year when they beat San Diego State.
Why they might not: Grand Canyon has seen regular season success but it hasn’t translated to the tournament yet and it’s been a similar story for Bryce Drew who’s led his teams to the dance many times, gotten them close to wins but hasn’t closed the deal. St Mary’s was not a favorable matchup for them to draw either.
Best case: Grand Canyon had decent teams before but this is by far their best team ever and they’re ready to prove it. Grant-Foster goes off to lead them to an upset over Saint Mary’s and they luck into a bracket bust matchup with Charleston in the 2nd round and they beat them to move on to the sweet 16. Grand Canyon even gives North Carolina a tougher than expected test but they fall short losing by 4. Best of all Arizona is upset early which means GCU can claim superiority over the state.
Worst case: Grand Canyon continues to struggle in the tournament. The Antelopes are run off the court quickly by Saint Mary’s and just like that a special season is over. Bigger programs that aren’t Vanderbilt come calling for Bryce Drew and he takes his next shot at a bigger stage.
4: Alabama Crimson Tide
Best Tournament Moment:Best Tournament Moment: There’s really not a lot of tournament history here but in 2004 Alabama went on their best run in program history. They were an 8 seed, outlasted Southern Illinois in the first round, upset Stanford and Syracuse before losing to UConn in the elite 8.
Why they can win it all: Alabama is one of the best teams in the nation offensively. They are completely aggressive on that side, shooting threes and forcing their way inside. They operate at a fast tempo that can overwhelm anyone.
Why they might not: Alabama is completely disinterested in playing defense. Eventually that will cost them.
Best case: Alabama might not play defense but if they shoot well they’ll overwhelm opponents. They blow past Charleston and Saint Mary’s. The Tide then get hot in an upset over North Carolina, and find themselves in a favorable matchup with Arizona in the elite 8. The Tide win to move on to the final 4 where they lose to UConn but it’s the best run in program history. To make it even better Auburn loses in the first round and the football team looks like they haven’t lost a step in spring practice despite losing Saban.
Worst case: Alabama not guarding costs them in a big way to open the tournament, it turns into a 3 point shooting contest against Charleston in the 1st round but Charleston is the one that hits them. Just like that the Tide are already done and are left to wonder when their tournament run will ever come. Even more insulting is the fact that Auburn goes on to win the national title. Fans turns away from basketball in disgust to pour over the football spring depth chart only to remember Saban is gone and they don’t look as good this time around.
13: Charleston Cougars
Best Tournament Moment: In 1997 Charleston entered the tournament with only 2 losses and was criminally under seeded as a 12 against a Maryland team that struggled down the stretch, Charleston felt they were the better team and showed it on the court when they rolled to victory. Charleston came very close to beating Arizona in a 4 point loss in the next round.
Why they can win it all: Charleston is a team that loves to play at a fast tempo, is well coached and they shoot a lot of 3s. The 3 point shooting gives them a chance against anybody.
Why they might not: Charleston isn’t as strong defensively as last years team, which showed in their only big game earlier this year when they lost to FAU. They didn’t get any other chances because everyone else refused to schedule them. If the 3s don’t fall the Cougars tend to struggle.
Best case: Charleston comes out ready to go further this year and they’re not scared. They hit their 3s and makes all the tough plays against Alabama , grab every loose ball and hit every shot when they need to upset the Tide. They catch a huge break when they get Grand Canyon in a bracket bust game the next round, and Charleston edges them out to get to the sweet 16. Charleston battles hard with North Carolina and comes up just short, but this was a run that’ll be remembered forever. Making things better is when both South Carolina and Clemson exit in the first round allowing Charleston to claim in state superiority.
Worst case: Charleston finds themselves in a tough first round spot. Playing up tempo vs an up tempo team with better athletes doesn’t work out often. The shots don’t fall and the Cougars make a quick quiet exit. Clemson still exits in the first round, then hires Kelsey away from Charleston. The window of opportunity is over for the Cougars.
6: Clemson Tigers
Best Tournament Moment: If Brad Brownell seems unfireable it’s because with this tournament appearance he’s now responsible for half of Clemson’s tournament appearances all time! There’s not much history at all for Clemson basketball. The Tigers didn’t even make it to the tournament until 1980 but they went to the elite 8 on their first try.
Why they can win it all: Clemson looked great in non-conference play picking up several good wins and rising up the polls. They rebound really well and have an experienced team.
Why they might not: Clemson’s offense is limited, there’s not many options on that side of the ball. The Tigers went cold in January after that strong start to fade out of the picture for a bit. Losing one score games has been a problem for them down the stretch.
Best case: Clemson is a program that is starved for some relevancy so they need to go on a run. They handle New Mexico and upset Baylor to move on to the sweet 16. They catch a nice bracket break game with Dayton and win to move on to the elite 8. That’s where they find Alabama waiting, once again the Tide opt out of playing defense allowing Clemson to win and move on to their first final 4. Their fans explode in celebration, Dabo is doing the drip in the stands and excitement for basketball has never been higher. Clemson loses to UConn in the final 4 but they made their run. It’s even better when South Carolina quietly exits in the 1st round and on the football side the offense finally looks like it has a good flow in spring practice.
Worst case: Clemson looks more like the team we see in January. They are quickly dispatched by New Mexico in the 1st round. Brad Brownell is not fired but given the dreaded statement of confidence. South Carolina goes on a surprise final 4 run and Gamecocks fans are quick to remind Clemson fans they now have 2 final 4s to Clemson’s none. Clemson fans immediately turn their attention to football only to find the offense looks clunky again in spring practice.
11: New Mexico Lobos
Best Tournament Moment: It’s surprising but there’s not a lot of tournament success for the Lobos. In 1974 they went to the sweet 16 and lost a close game to San Francisco, then beat Dayton in the regional 3rd place game that existed back then.
Why they can win it all: This team is loaded with talent. They’ve got fast guards and great rebounders inside. The Lobos keep a clean operation and don’t turn the ball over. This team is capable of playing with anyone.
Why they might not: Consistency is what put them in this spot. They’ve underachieved in some games this year. One thing that would help is if they could shoot it better from deep. History isn’t on the Lobos side either. They’re only an 11 seed but have one tournament win all time over a seed higher than them, they had a 9 over 8 seed victory in 1999 when they beat Missouri.
Best case: History be damned, the Lobos don’t care and are determined to prove the committee wrong after being labeled a bid stealer. They roll past Clemson, and upset a vulnerable Baylor. They catch a regional battle with Arizona and capture the nation’s hearts when they upset the Wildcats, New Mexico finds Alabama in the elite 8 and out guns them to move on to the final 4. New Mexico catches a game with Auburn not UConn and once again wins a shootout to be the first 11 seed in the national championship, they meet their match with Houston there but it’s an incredible run and all New Mexico State and UTEP fans can do is look on.
Worst case: New Mexico can’t escape their bad tournament past. The Lobos struggle to make shots, struggle to defend and are run off the court by Clemson. ACC fans chirp about a win over the Mountain West and call New Mexico overrated. With an experienced group now gone fans are left to wonder if a tournament run will ever come.
3: Baylor Bears
Best Tournament Moment: This one is easy. Baylor’s triumphant moment happened in 2021 when they rolled through the tournament and beat an undefeated Gonzaga for their first and currently only national title. It marked the arrival of the Bears as a new blood.
Why they can win it all: These Bears can score, and make opportunities to score. They’re one of the best shooting teams in the nation, they get to the foul line and make them. If Baylor misses they’re also good at grabbing rebounds to create more opportunities.
Why they might not: This is a huge theme in this region, but Baylor seldom chooses to play defense.
Best case: Baylor finds a little bit of defense to help them along the way. They beat Colgate, Clemson, Arizona and North Carolina on their way to the final 4. From there Baylor gets hot at the final 4 and beats UConn then takes down Tennessee to win the national title. With 2 national titles since 2021 Baylor is now the superior program in college basketball and all Texas/TCU can do is look on after they’re bounced in the 1st round.
Worst case: Baylor’s defensive struggles are apparent in the first round when they can’t put away Colgate. The Bears hit some clutch free throws to beat them 95-92, but their luck runs out as Baylor is bounced out by New Mexico in the 2nd round. The earlier than expected loss brings a lot of attention to the fact that they’ve lost earlier than expected every year after the national title, and Bears fans are left to wonder if they’ll ever reach that level again. It feels even worse when Texas and TCU meet with a final 4 on the line and Houston wins the national title.
14: Colgate Raiders
Best Tournament Moment: Colgate has made every NCAA tournament that’s been played since 2019 which is impressive, they just haven’t won any games yet. They brought Tennessee to the wire in 2019 as a 15 seed and likewise Wisconsin as a 14 seed in 2022. They just haven’t gotten over the hump.
Why they can win it all: This team is different than the ones of last year’s. They’re better defensively.
Why they might not: There’s a reason they have so many tournament appearances but no wins. They run a system that extracts every advantage they have, but leaves them exposed to teams with better athletes.
Best case: Colgate comes out of the gates swinging. They hit a few 3s and grab an early lead over Baylor to capture everyone’s attention. Baylor goes on a run in the 2nd half to take the lead back but Colgate gets hot and stays in the game. Still they fell too far behind to win it but they come close, only losing by 3. Matt Langel still remains under the radar somehow and returns to once again dominate the Patriot League.
Worst case: Baylor jumps out to an early lead and Colgate is out of the game immediately. They lose by 30 and no one even remembers they made the tournament, except for an AD of a bigger program who poaches Langel from them.
7: Dayton Flyers
Best Tournament Moment: Dayton went on an incredible run in 1967, beating Western Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia Tech in their region, 2 of those were in overtime and the Tennessee win was by 1 point. In the final 4 they destroyed North Carolina then lost in the national title to the wagon that was John Wooden’s UCLA squad. It’s also worth noting they would have gotten a 1 seed in 2020.
Why they can win it all: Dayton has so many guys that can score. DaRon Holmes is a future NBA player who can score inside and out, the offense moves through him and he opens things up for Kobe Brea, one of the best 3 point shooters in the nation. That’s not all the other Kobe, Kobe Elvis can also hit from deep and Nate Santos can also heat up at any time.
Why they might not: Dayton has taken some losses down the stretch and that’s because their defense has vanished lately. They haven’t been able to contain opposing shooters lately. The Flyers have also turned the ball over too frequently.
Best case: The Flyers are ready to get revenge for the 2020 team that never got their shot. They get hot shooting, easily dispatch Nevada and then upset Arizona. The Flyers happen to catch a couple bad defenses in Baylor then Alabama and upset both behind some hot shooting. The Flyers are in the final 4 and the story of the sport, it ends against UConn but they feel vindicated for the lost 2020 run. With all the other big Ohio schools in the NIT, Dayton makes it clear they’re the superior basketball program in the state.
Worst case: The issues that plagued the Flyers at the end of the season plague them in the tournament. It’s a quick exit as Nevada forces some turnovers and scores at will. The opportunity to avenge the lost 2020 team is gone as it’s time for the Flyers to rebuild. Akron pulls a first round upset so Dayton didn’t even go further than anyone in the state.
10: Nevada Wolfpack
Best Tournament Moment: Nevada has 2 sweet 16s and both were great runs. I’ll have 2004 as the best. As a 10 seed Nevada upset Michigan State, blasted Gonzaga and lost in the sweet 16 by 5 to a Georgia Tech team that would go on to play for the national title.
Why they can win it all: Nevada is led by a pair of excellent guards in Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blacksheer. The play of these 2 give the Wolfpack a chance to beat anybody. This is an efficient offense overall. What else helps is that Nevada finished the reason really strong so they’re heating up at the right time.
Why they might not: History isn’t really on Steve Alford’s side when it comes to the tournament. For whatever reason it always feels like his teams come up short in this setting. Can they overcome that?
Best case: This is Alford’s best Nevada team and they’re ready to go on a run. The Wolfpack score at will on Dayton to win, and they upset their neighbor Arizona in a win they’ll remember for a long time. Nevada even follows it up further by upsetting defense optional Baylor and Alabama to reach the final 4. The run ends against UConn but this is a run everyone will remember Nevada for, all the while UNLV can just watch after losing in the first round of the NIT.
Worst case: Alford’s tournament short comings strike once again. Nevada can’t stop Dayton’s offense and they’re bounced quietly out of the 1st round.
2: Arizona Wildcats
Best Tournament Moment: Arizona won their only national title in 1997. The Wildcats went on an incredible run to get there. They won every single game by less than 10 points, 2 in overtime and beat 3 number 1 seeds on their way to the championship. They also were the only non 1-seed to make the final 4.
Why they can win it all: Arizona yet again has a great offense, that’s something you can always expect for a Tommy Lloyd team, but thanks to some transfers they improved defensively as well. This team can beat anybody.
Why they might not: Arizona’s guards are capable of having a bad night at any point and when they struggle Arizona can lose to anybody.
Best case: This experienced team is ready to shine when it matters most. Arizona easily beats Long Beach State, and Nevada. Surpasses their tests against Baylor and North Carolina to move on to be final 4. Once they get there the Wildcats are faced with a seemingly dominant UConn team but Caleb Love drains the game winning shot in an instant classic, but they’re not done yet, they beat Houston to win the national title. Tommy Lloyd is crowned as one of the best coaches in the nation.
Worst case: Arizona’s guards struggle in shocking fashion against Long Beach State. They make mistakes throughout leaving the nation in disbelief that Arizona lost to a 15 seed for the 2nd straight year. There’s questions on whether Tommy Lloyd can coach in the tournament. To make matters worse, Purdue makes the final 4 which puts the pressure on Arizona as the tournaments biggest choker.
15: Long Beach State 49ers
Best Tournament Moment: NCAA be damned, their rules are outdated. Long Beach State went on some awesome runs in the 1970s under the legendary Jerry Tarkanian that were later vacated, but who cares their fans still remember. Long Beach State went on an elite 8 run and lost by 2 points to the wagon that was John Wooden’s UCLA. This year was a mess, 3 of the top 8 finishers had their season vacated which just looks ridiculous.
Why they can win it all: Never count out a team with nothing to lose. That was the case for Long Beach State during an already magical run. They fired Dan Monson before the conference tournament but let him continue to coach and now they’re on a revenge tour. The 49ers are already an aggressive team, they force a lot of turnovers and rebound the ball well. They can really frustrate opponents and it’s ramped up since Monson was fired.
Why they might not: This team was inconsistent all season so surely the run will end at some point. They could get run out of the tournament by Arizona rather quickly.
Best case: Long Beach State’s magical run continues. The 49ers frustrate Arizona’s guards and force them into a funk. A team with nothing to lose makes the favorite feel tight, as the game goes on the 49ers gain more confidence and upset the Wildcats in a shocker. The nation celebrates Monson’s rally of this team but they’re not done, they manage to upset Dayton for a stunning sweet 16 run! The 49ers lose to Baylor once they get there but everyone has already fallen in love with this team.
Worst case: This is already one of the most talked about teams so they’ve already won. It’s actually worse if they’re competitive with Arizona but lose in a close game. Leaving questions on whether they should have ever fired Monson but without the fun of a tournament run. Big West for Cal Poly ends up hiring Monson so now they have to play him every year.
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