1: Houston Cougars
Best Tournament Moment: The Phi Slama Jama teams for Houston were of course the best period of Houston basketball. They made 3 straight final 4s and 2 straight national titles, but of course you can’t forget 1983 when they lost at the last moment to Jimmy V and NC State in one of the most iconic moments in the sport.
Why they can win it all: Houston has the most suffocating defense in the sport. Every team that plays them is essentially signing up for 40 minutes of suffering. These guys are relentless shot defenders and ball stealers. Jamal Shead is one of the best guards in the game, a lot of the team goes through him. Houston has generally been a very good tournament team too, last season was the first time under Kelvin Sampson that they didn’t go as far as their seed indicated they should.
Why they might not: Health is the biggest concern, this team was leaking oil by the end of the Big 12 tournament and their depth has taken a hit thanks to injuries. Their offense struggles a lot at times. It’s not easy to shoot 3s against this team but if you can get hot enough to hit contested shots you can get a lead and roll. We saw Miami do this last year and Iowa State made it happen in the Big 12 tournament.
Best case: Houston is ready to finish the job this time and win it all. The Cougars win easily in the 1st round, crush Texas A&M, Duke and Kentucky on their way to the final 4. Houston takes down Purdue and UConn in the final 4 to win the national title and fully establish themselves as a new blood program. Texas loses in the 1st round just to make things better.
Worst case: Houston’s injury struggles and offensive issues prove to be too much for them. The Cougars get frustrated by Longwood in the 1st round, failing to put them away until late in the game. Things come to a terrible end in the 2nd round as Houston is upset by Texas A&M. Not only is such a great season ending far too soon but Houston fans don’t even have bragging rights in their part of the state anymore. Adding insult is Texas making a run to the final 4.
16: Longwood Lancers
Best Tournament Moment: Longwood made the tournament as a 14 seed in 2022 and lost by 32 points to Tennessee.
Why they can win it all: Longwood looked great to start out the year, they also finished strong in the conference tournament. They force a lot of turnovers and know how to generate extra possessions.
Why they might not: Longwood doesn’t have a great offense, it’s very reliant on grabbing rebounds and turnovers. Rebounds aren’t going to be available against Houston and they have an uphill climb.
Best case: Houston takes Longwood lightly and is sloppier than usual. The Lancers get a few turnovers and hang around most of the game. They don’t particularly threaten to win, but it’s enough to keep people watching.
Worst case: Houston’s defense makes this the most miserable 40 minutes Longwood’s players have ever seen. The Lancers struggle to even reach 20 by halftime and don’t even hit 50 points for the game.
8: Nebraska Cornhuskers
Best Tournament Moment: There isn’t one. Nebraska has never won a tournament game in program history. It’s one thing to be a mid major that usually ends up as a 14-16 seed, but when you’ve always had resources at your disposal but never won a tournament game there isn’t a positive experience to extract from their tournament history.
Why they can win it all: Keisei Tominaga is a candidate to become everyone’s March hero, he’s a stud. Fred Hoiberg is known as an offensive guy, but it’s really the Huskers stifling defense that has led the way. That being said, they have a lot of guys who can hit 3s.
Why they might not: Let’s start with winning one game, shall we? Nebraska doesn’t rebound well so they aren’t likely to get another shot if their 3s don’t fall. Most of the work Nebraska did this year was at home, they weren’t great on the road/neutral sites.
Best case: Nebraska comes into the tournament with momentum and that continues with them hitting their shots against Texas A&M. Huskers roll to a win, Tominaga is the talk of the town, and the women’s team also beats Texas A&M so Nebraska fans get to ask Trev Alberts how things are going. The momentum doesn’t stop too, the Huskers defense frustrates Houston and they once again hit some 3s to pull off the upset. Nebraska’s run ends against Duke, but it was a great one nonetheless.
Worst case: Nebraska’s struggles away from home continue. They don’t hit shots and Texas A&M dominates them inside. An exciting season ends in disappointment as they still don’t have a tournament win. Making matters worse is the Nebraska women are upset by Texas A&M too, all the while Trev Alberts grins ear to ear as the brinks truck pulls up to his office.
9: Texas A&M Aggies
Best Tournament Moment: Texas A&M has made the sweet 16 several times but has never made it past that point. In 2007 they made it there as a 3 seed before falling by just a point to Memphis.
Why they can win it all: This is an athletic team with all the talent in the world, remember they started ranked very high in preseason. Their defense is difficult to deal with thanks to all the pressure they put on opponents and they rebound the ball well.
Why they might not: Part of why this team rebounds so well is they’ve had a lot of practice rebounding their own misses. They settle for way too many bad shots, which puts them near the bottom in FG percentage. They’ve also lost a lot of close games, notably to bad teams like Vanderbilt and Arkansas.
Best case: The good version of Texas A&M shows up to start out the tournament. They use a huge edge in rebounds to beat Nebraska and upset Houston in a rematch from earlier in the season. Finally they take down Duke in the sweet 16 to get to the elite 8 for the first time. With a trip to the final 4 on the line Buzz Williams faces his old school, Marquette and comes out victorious. They lose in the final 4 but this is major validation for a program that’s been trying to get to a higher level for years. They also take great joy in seeing Texas lose in the first round.
Worst case: A disappointing team reverts back to their bad tendencies as soon as the tournament starts. They take terrible shots throughout the game allowing Nebraska to roll. They’re left to wonder whether Buzz Williams can ever get this program going. Worse yet, Texas goes on a surprise final 4 run. They look to spring practice for hope, but alas it appears it’s going to take Elko a year to get it going.
5: Wisconsin Badgers
Best Tournament Moment: Fun fact, Wisconsin was the 3rd national champions in the history of the sport. They had to grind it out the whole way there with close wins the entire way but they won it all. If you want a more recent moment it would be 2015 when they took down an undefeated Kentucky in the final 4 before losing to Duke in the national title.
Why they can win it all: Wisconsin has an offense? Yes! Wisconsin has an offense! They are one of the better offenses in the country this year in fact, a complete change compared to previous Greg Gard Badger teams. They’re a good rebounding team too. This team was great a lot of the year, seemingly challenging for a 2 seed for a while.
Why they might not: Sometimes you correct one thing and get worse at another. Wisconsin has completely fallen off a cliff on the defensive side of the ball. Just a complete 180 compared to what you would usually expect. The reason they didn’t get a 2 seed was they collapsed down the stretch. Wisconsin is also a team that really lacks depth.
Best case: Their run in the Big Ten tournament was more of an indicator of what this team can do. They roll past James Madison, handle Duke and then upset Houston. The Badgers take down Kentucky to go to the final 4 where they meet Tennessee. They overwhelm the Vols with their offense before losing in the championship to UConn, but it was an amazing run that showed Gard can get this team all the way.
Worst case: You need defense to go far in March and Wisconsin has next to none of it. That proves to be a huge problem when going up against James Madison’s explosive offense and the Badgers fall in the first round. It becomes fair to question whether they can ever make it far in the tournament under Greg Gard.
12: James Madison Dukes
Best Tournament Moment: James Madison went on an impressive tournament run in 1982. As a 9 seed they took down Ohio State in the first round then nearly prevented Michael Jordan’s iconic game winning shot from happening as the Dukes hung with UNC all game, I read about this on a JMU newspaper but not surprisingly a late charge call went UNCs preventing JMU from the upset in a 2 point loss.
Why they can win it all: James Madison is a team filled with filled with skilled offensive playmakers. It’s a truly impressive team that has guys who can score all around the starting lineup and their bench. They love to rotate guys to wear their opponent out. 3 point shooting is a massive specialty for this time. They already got it done on a big stage to open the year when they beat Michigan State in East Lansing.
Why they might not: JMU isn’t as strong on the defensive end as you’d like to see. Appalachian State was the best guarding team they played all year and the Mountaineers really bothered them in both matchups (App State’s defense was good enough to bother Auburn too, of course).
Best case: James Madison is under seeded this team should have been deserving of an At Large bid and this seeding shows they never were in the conversation which is criminal. They’re ready to prove a point and they take advantage of Wisconsin’s lackluster defense to upset the Badgers. The Dukes go further this time hitting some 3 point shots to upset Duke and make it to the sweet 16 for the first time in program history. The run ends against Houston, but JMU made their statement. Mark Byington knows he has it good and there isn’t a power conference opening that interests him so he gets an extension and sticks around. Virginia loses in the first round so James Madison claims in state superiority.
Worst case: James Madison’s tournament appearance is short lived. They are overwhelmed by the Badgers, fall behind early and are never in it. Byington decides any bigger job gives him a better chance at winning in the tournament even if it is Vanderbilt.
4: Duke Blue Devils
Best Tournament Moment: It’s hard to pick just 1 because Duke has so many national titles but their best might just be in 1992. They were coming off their program’s first ever national title and backed it up with a run for the ages. With Christian Laettner’s iconic shot and winning the national title over the Fab Five.
Why they can win it all: The obvious is that Duke has the talent as always. They’ve got the horses to play and score with anybody. Kyle Filipowski is one of the sport’s biggest stars and Duke has a couple guards who can score points in bunches. This is an experienced team too.
Why they might not: This team struggles with inconsistency at times, they’ve dropped a couple stinkers here and there. They struggle to get stops because times can attack the middle of their defense. Duke didn’t have many games against teams seeded on the top 2 seed lines, only 3 of them, but Duke lost all 3 of them despite playing 2 of those at home.
Best case: Duke is ready to go on a run, they have more talent than just about anybody. They easily beat Vermont and Wisconsin. Then the Blue Devils really take off, they beat Houston and Kentucky on their way to the final 4. They keep it rolling once they get there too, Duke beats Tennessee and Filipowski hits a game winning shot to beat UConn. It’s apparent the program will be just fine with Jon Scheyer in charge. Making it even better is the fact that NC State quietly loses in the 1st round and North Carolina is upset in the 2nd round allowing Duke fans to ask them how their coaching situation is going.
Worst case: Duke’s inconsistency hurts them in the worst way. The Blue Devils struggle mightily against Vermont. The game remains close throughout and is tied up late. A controversial call gets Filipowski to the line with 2 seconds left, he makes 1 to give Duke the lead and Vermont’s game winning shot rims out. Duke breaths a sigh of relief only to lose to James Madison 2 days later. Fans begin to wonder if Scheyer can ever lead them to the promise land, especially when Hubert Davis leads North Carolina to a national title.
13: Vermont Catamounts
Best Tournament Moment: Vermont has only one tournament victory but it was an instant classic. Vermont was a 13 seed and upset Syracuse in overtime. They sealed the victory with TJ Sorrentine’s iconic deep 3 pointer.
Why they can win it all: Vermont is good at everything. They shoot well, they rebound well and they can force you to play at their pace. Their defense is much improved this year compared to years past and that might be difference maker.
Why they might not: They struggle to control the game against teams outside of the America East. They can still bother those teams, they’ve hung in every recent tournament game until late but eventually they fall behind by 5 or 6 and can’t make it back.
Best case: Vermont was given a 4-13 matchup that is really more of a 2-15. That doesn’t stop the Catamounts from battling. They trade the lead back and forth with Duke and it’s tied with a minute left. To no surprise to anyone some calls go Duke’s way at the end, but Vermont made their mark.
Worst case: Vermont doesn’t make their mark. They get run off the court very quickly and lose by more than 20. It’s over so quickly that no one even gets to remember Sorrentine’s incredible 3 pointer.
6: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Best Tournament Moment: Texas Tech had an incredible run in 2019. They went on an absolute warpath, dominating everyone on their way to the national title. They ended up coming up short in overtime in what was an epic game.
Why they can win it all: Texas Tech has a team that’s led by their offense which is different compared to their previous teams. They have tremendous guard play and can shoot well from deep.
Why they might not: The Red Raiders are vulnerable inside, especially because their big man has been hurt lately. They might also rely on the 3 too much, if that doesn’t work their offense stalls out.
Best case: Texas Tech opens the tournament strong handling NC State and they knock down some threes to upset Kentucky. It gets even better when they get a matchup with Florida who is also vulnerable inside. The Red Raiders take them down to move on to the elite 8. The run ends there against Duke but the future is bright for Texas Techs program, which is something they can’t say in Austin after Texas loses in the first round.
Worst case: Texas Tech doesn’t even get started. They struggle shooting from deep and get knocked out in the first round by NC State. It’s a disappointing finish to a promising year. It feels even worse when Texas makes it to the final 4 and everyone else in the state of Texas gets out of the first round.
11: NC State Wolfpack
Best Tournament Moment: We all know this one. In one of the most iconic moments in the sport’s history, NC State upset Houston in the 1983 national title with a game winning dunk. Jimmy V being carried by his team will be remembered forever.
Why they can win it all: They win 5 games in 5 days to get here so 6 games in a couple weeks should be a walk in the park, right? Offense is NC State’s calling card, they have scorers inside and out. This offense is also hot at the right time.
Why they might not: The problem all year is that defense is very much optional for this team. They haven’t made stops there all year putting pressure on the offense to score.
Best case: NC State keeps lighting it up offensively like they did in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack roll past Texas Tech, outscore Kentucky and Marquette. Then calling back to that 1983 championship they upset Houston on a last moment shot to move on to the final 4. They lost to Purdue there but this was an amazing run that provides some confidence in the future of the program under Kevin Keatts. Making things better is when both North Carolina and Duke lose in the 2nd round.
Worst case: Kevin Keatts is 0-4 in tournament games and that continues. They are uncompetitive in a loss to Texas Tech. Now fans are left to wonder what the ACC title run was all for, and NC State is stuck wondering what to do, because you can’t fire a tournament winning coach but it’s also apparent he won’t get them to the promise land. North Carolina and Duke meet in the championship game just to make it worse.
3: Kentucky Wildcats
Best Tournament Moment: Kentucky has 8 National titles. It’s hard to pick just one although Adolph Rupp won 3 in 4 years.
Why they can win it all: It comes as no surprise that Kentucky is one of the most talented teams in the country. When their offense is firing on all cylinders nobody can beat them.
Why they might not: What Kentucky has in their offense they lack in defense and on off nights for the offense they are vulnerable to lose to anyone. Their fans have lost confidence in Calipari’s ability to win in the tournament.
Best case: John Calipari is ready to prove he’s not done. Kentucky comes out firing on all cylinders on offense. They roll to the sweet 16 without any issues, handle Marquette and take down Houston to advance to the final 4. Kentucky then beats Purdue and UConn to win the national title. A run that’s hailed as one of the greatest of all time because Kentucky entered the rare category of beating 3 1-seeds to win the national title. Kentucky fans get a big laugh to start the tournament when Tennessee loses to St Peter’s in the first round.
Worst case: John Calipari is done. Kentucky is surprised by Oakland’s defense and comes out cold. The Wildcats come back to put pressure on the Golden Grizzlies late but they don’t crack and once again they’re out in the 1st round. Fans are frustrated because there’s a dreaded vote of confidence but nothing more, especially with coaches like Dusty May available, but he lands at Louisville. Making matters worse is the fact that Tennessee beats St Peter’s by 30, getting a laugh at Kentucky fans as the Vols march to a national title.
14: Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Best Tournament Moment: Oakland has an opening round tournament win in 2005 over Alabama A&M, we used to be at 65 teams and 2 16 seeds opened against each other which is silly to think about. Oakland’s best tournament moment might have been in 2011 when they came oh so close to upsetting Texas before losing by 4.
Why they can win it all: Greg Kampe is the longest tenured coach at any school, he’s been at Oakland for 40 years which is truly amazing. The Golden Grizzlies finished the season hot down the stretch and they have a defense that can really bother opponents. They have experience facing bigger schools, giving both Ohio State and Illinois tough games in close losses before finally closing the deal with a win over Xavier.
Why they might not: There were 2 other games against tournament opponents when Oakland played Michigan State and Dayton, they weren’t competitive in those games. They haven’t won anything other than a play in game in the tournament so actually beating someone like Kentucky is a huge uphill climb.
Best case: Oakland gets off to a hot start and their defense bothers Kentucky forcing the Wildcats to take bad shots. Kentucky rallies late but Oakland holds on for the upset victory. Greg Kampe is the toast of College Basketball as everyone immediately falls in love with his story. They lose to Texas Tech in the next round but Michigan State is already eliminated in the 1st round making Oakland the team that made it furthest from the mitten state.
Worst case: Kentucky comes in shooting lights out and Oakland is out of the game before anyone gets to find out about his story. Following the game Kampe’s entire team hits the portal so he decides it’s time for him to hang it up too.
7: Florida Gators
Best Tournament Moment: It doesn’t get any better than winning back to back national titles like Florida did in 2006 and 2007.
Why they can win it all: As with many teams in this tournament. Florida has a very exciting offense, one of the best in the country. They have guys who can score inside and out. They’re capable of beating anyone.
Why they might not: Florida is in trouble on the defensive side of the ball. They already struggle to get stops on that side of the ball, especially in the 2nd half and now they lost their best shot blocker for the season in the SEC tournament.
Best case: Florida has a very winnable side of the bracket and they’re ready to take advantage. The Gators handle Colorado, and then upset Marquette. They catch Texas Tech instead of Kentucky to avoid a SEC rematch and handle the Red Raiders to move on to the elite 8. Most would think the run is over against Houston but Florida shoots lights out to win it and move on to the final 4. The Gators manage to upset Purdue there and move on to the national title. They lose to UConn there but it’s apparent Todd Golden has this program going in the right direction.
Worst case: Florida’s defensive woes prove to be too much. Boise State carves them up inside and out the entire game, Florida isn’t even competitive in a loss to a team that didn’t even have a tournament win before this tournament. The disappointment makes Gator fans wonder if Golden was the right hire for the program.
10: Boise State Broncos
Best Tournament Moment: Boise State has made the tournament several times but just hasn’t been able to get over the hump to get that tournament win. The closest they came was in 2015. They were the only team to ever have the misfortune of playing Dayton in the first 4, so yes they had a true road game in the tournament and lost by 1.
Why they can win it all: Boise State has a slow methodical style of play and when they play it well they are tough to beat. They wait for good shots on offense and their defense plays hard. They have good size and rebound well.
Why they might not: Boise State has the most tournament appearances without a win for any program in the nation, failing to get over the hump is truly a thing for this program. This team may have good size but this isn’t a very athletic team, this hurt them a lot in OOC play.
Best case: This first four matchup is a battle of polar opposites, Boise State is a team of not great athletes that play well together while Colorado is a team with great athletes that’s struggled to consistently play well together. Boise State frustrates them early and often. Colorado never gets in a rhythm and Boise State comes out of Dayton with their first ever tournament win. The Broncos go even a step further and carve up Florida’s defense to beat the Gators. It gets even better when they catch Western Kentucky instead of Marquette, and they win to move on to the sweet 16 where they meet Texas Tech. Boise State wins that one as well before bowing out against Houston. It’s a run they’ll remember forever, and one that reminds Leon Rice how much he loves it in Boise. He signs another long term extension with the program.
Worst case: Boise State just can’t get over the hump. They were severely under seeded and matched with a Colorado team that’s getting into form at the right time. Boise State is run off the court and fans are left to wonder if that tournament win will ever come. Leon Rice wonders that too but decides he isn’t going to wait any longer to find out, he leaves for the Stanford job.
10: Colorado Buffaloes
Best Tournament Moment: Colorado has 2 final 4s in their history. Their appearance in 1955 went the best. They matched past Tulsa and Bradley to get there before losing to eventual national champion San Francisco, who was led by Bill Russell. They won the 3rd place game over Iowa as a bonus.
Why they can win it all: This Colorado team is extremely talented. They have a star in KJ Simpson and former tournament hero from a couple years ago Eddie Lampkin is on the team. They have a future lottery pick in Cody Williams on the team, but his season has been disappointing due to injuries, he came back and provided a boost during the Pac-12 tournament.
Why they might not: This is a team that’s still coming together, but it’s getting there. The other issue is similar to many other teams. Colorado isn’t a strong defensive team, they can be taken advantage of on the inside especially.
Best case: Colorado hits their peak at the right time. The Buffaloes stampede past Boise State and Florida. They upset Marquette and Kentucky to move on to the elite 8. They get in a tight battle with Duke in the elite 8 but Cody Williams hits the game winning shot to get the Buffs to the final 4. They lose to Purdue in the final 4 but it was an excellent run that really gets Colorado basketball on the map on their way to the toughest conference in the sport next year.
Worst case: Things don’t come together. Boise State carves them up inside all game and Colorado never finds a flow on the offensive side. Colorado is out before anyone knows they made it or had a lottery pick on the team. Making matters worse is Colorado State goes on a surprise tournament run.
2: Marquette Golden Eagles
Best Tournament Moment: Marquette won their first and only national title in 1977. The Golden Eagles had quite the bizarre run to it. Their last 3 games were over teams from the state of North Carolina (Wake Forest, Charlotte, North Carolina).
Why they can win it all: This team has a very good offense that can do it all. They’re experienced and are near impossible to deal with on that side of the ball. Tyler Kolek is the engine that makes that offense run and he’s one of the best in college basketball. Marquette’s defensive scheme loves to force turnovers.
Why they might not: If their defense isn’t forcing turnovers, it’s struggling to get stops. Tyler Kolek got injured at a really bad time, he’s expected back for the tournament but how healthy is he? Marquette is a sitting duck if Kolek isn’t healthy, as it is they have depth issues in the guard positions. Shaka Smart ‘s tournament history has been a struggle, he hasn’t made the second weekend since his magical final 4 run in 2011 with VCU.
Best case: Kolek took the time off in the conference tournament to be healthy for the big dance. Marquette’s offense is back to full strength and they easily roll past Western Kentucky, Florida, Kentucky and Duke to make the final 4. The Golden Eagles beat Purdue to move on to the championship where they are lucky to find North Carolina waiting instead of their arch nemesis UConn. The Golden Eagles for the 2nd time in program history beat the Tar Heels for a national title. All the while, Wisconsin can just look on after a 1st round exit.
Worst case: Kolek isn’t fully healthy and it shows right away. He tries his best to tough it out but their offense isn’t the same. Meanwhile Western Kentucky carves up their defense and it’s a shocking first round exit for the Golden Eagles. Everyone questions whether Shaka Smart can ever win in the tournament again.
15: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Best Tournament Moment: Western Kentucky has one final 4 to their name. In 1971 the Hilltoppers made a surprise run through the Mideast region of the bracket beating Jacksonville, Kentucky and Ohio State on their way to the final 4. They lost a double OT thriller to Villanova but beat Kansas in the 3rd place game. Star player Jim McDaniels was found to be in violation of NCAA rules because he was signed with an agent so this is technically vacated but with the rules changed these days vacated records are outdated. Let Big Red hang the banner!
Why they can win it all: Western Kentucky is a challenging team to defend because they operate as the fastest paced team in the sport. They are very good on the offensive side, and their defense can be underrated at times too. Steve Lutz is a great coach, and he really brought this collection of transfers together. If they get hot watch out.
Why they might not: Western Kentucky is sometimes just outright wreckless with the ball. They turn it over far more frequently than you’d like to see for a team with a 15 seed.
Best case: The Western Kentucky team we saw in the CUSA tournament that was scorching from deep appears again in the NCAA tournament. It helps that they catch Marquette without a healthy Tyler Kolek. Western Kentucky overwhelms the Golden Eagles defense in an upset win, they follow it up with a win over Boise State and which sets up an in-state battle with Kentucky. Western Kentucky takes advantage of Kentucky’s lackluster defense and gets the Wildcats to take enough bad shots to pull off the upset and move on to the elite 8, only the 2nd 15 seed to ever do so. The run ends there against Houston but it was an incredible one nonetheless. Steve Lutz is excited about what he’s building and signs an extension.
Worst case: Western Kentucky is faced with a healthy Marquette team and it proves to be an issue. It’s a shootout for the first 8 minutes but after the 2nd TV timeout the Tops give the Golden Eagles unneeded assistance with a flurry of turnovers and the game gets out of hand before most people even notice the game is on. Even more unfortunate is that the run is long enough for a desperate Vanderbilt program to notice Lutz’s record on getting teams to the tournament, they tell him to name his price and he signs the contract down the road in Nashville the next day.
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