1: Connecticut Huskies
Best Tournament Moment: Tough to pick just one. Just recently they’ve had Kemba Walker’s incredible run, the time they were the first ever 7 seed to win it all and then last year when they absolutely blasted everyone in their path.
Why they can win it all: This team is a wagon. Like I said above they completely dominated everyone in this setting last year and returned a lot of pieces from that team. They have so many different ways to score, one player having an off night isn’t enough for this team to lose. They defend well too. Truly they haven’t shown much of any sort of drop off from last year.
Why they might not: It didn’t stop them last year but UConn has the most loaded region, so there’s that. It’s March Madness and wilder things have happened.
Best Case: I guess the only thing better than last year’s run is to turn around and do it again. UConn does that solidifying them as the team to beat until someone actually beats them in the tournament.
Worst Case: They could have a 2nd round matchup with a FAU team that went to the final 4 last year. The Owls haven’t looked quite the same as that team for a bit, but this is when they recapture that magic. The Owls frustrate UConn by defending the 3 point line well and they got hot to upset the Huskies. Suddenly the rare back to back opportunity is gone by the first weekend.
16: Stetson Hatters
Best Tournament Moment: You’re looking at it. Stetson is in the tournament for the first time. Congrats to the Hatters!
Why they can win it all: They have quite a solid squad and are sort of underseeded honestly. The Hatters play fast and aggressive with guards all over the floor. They fearlessly shoot it from 3 and hit them at a good rate. You like to see that from an underdog. It helped them in a win over UCF this year.
Why they might not: Ummm do you see the team waiting for them on the other side of this matchup?? What also doesn’t help is Stetson doesn’t play good defense.
Best Case: Stetson is ready to go out and show the world what they do. They win the opening tip and hit 4 quick 3s to race out to an early 14-4 lead. “Stop the count!” Tweets come racing in from everyone that covers basketball. Dan Hurley calls a timeout in frustration, yells at his team, yells at the refs because he loves to and gets another fan kicked out from the game. UConn takes the game over after that, but Stetson had their moment and everyone will have that early score screenshot in their phones until their storage space gets to an uncomfortable level.
Worst case: Is it possible for UConn to be so dominant that Stetson never wants to return to the tournament? That could happen. UConn runs away with it early and no one even remembers Stetson made the tournament.
8: Florida Atlantic Owls
Best Tournament Moment: As most know, last year was FAUs best tournament moment. The Owls won thrillers over Memphis, Fairleigh Dickinson, Tennessee and Kansas State on their route to their first ever final 4. The best game of the final four was when they faced San Diego State in a game that was back and forth but the Owls lost on a last moment shot.
Why they can win it all: This is the exact same team that went on that run last year, every single player, coach, etc is back. Their offense is truly dynamic with multiple guys who can be the lead scorer when needed.
Why they might not: Despite being the same team there’s multiple characteristics that are troubling compared to last year’s team. They aren’t as good on the defensive side of the ball and they have struggled with the transition from hunter to hunted.
Best Case: FAU is able to put all of that behind them and recapture the March magic that propelled this program. They take down Northwestern and win a thrilling 2nd round battle with UConn that feels like a final 4 game. The Owls don’t slow down there, they turn the tables on San Diego State beating them with a last moment shot, then the Owls beat Iowa State to return to the final 4. They already beat UConn so they may as well go all the way. FAU upsets North Carolina and beats Purdue to win the national title. They’re the lowest seed to do it in years. Dusty May decides since he was already able to do it once he might as well stick around. Florida loses early just to make the Owls dominance over the state that much better.
Worst case: This isn’t the same team as last year and that much is apparent right away against Northwestern. They struggle to stop the Wildcats and flame out in the first round. A nightmare of a result for a team that was trying to repeat their magical run and go further this time around. Dusty May decides he’s better off elsewhere and leaves.
9: Northwestern Wildcats
Best Tournament Moment: Northwestern waited such a long time to make the tournament and finally in 2017 they made it. Northwestern managed to pull off a tight win over Vanderbilt, a truly magical moment for a program that waited so long.
Why they can win it all: You can’t win it all unless you win your first right? Northwestern has that down. Winning their first game in both tournament appearances. The Wildcats run one of the cleanest operations in the country, they seldom beat themselves. They also are one of the best 3 point shooting teams led by Boo Buie who’s been incredible from deep this year.
Why they might not: It’s been a step back defensively for the Wildcats this year. They haven’t been nearly as good on that side of the ball this year. Boo Buie’s health is a concern. This team won’t be the same if he can’t play. Also it doesn’t help that UConn would be waiting for them in the 2nd round.
Best case: Northwestern has been to the tournament enough times now they want more. Northwestern handles FAU in the 1st round and reaches the big challenge of UConn. March magic takes over, the Wildcats can’t miss from 3 and upset the Huskies in shocking fashion. Northwestern keeps it going after that, they roll past Auburn and Iowa State to their first ever final 4. Northwestern loses to North Carolina there but it’s a truly memorable run for a program that was completely lost just years ago.
Worst case: This run doesn’t last long. Buie tries to play but it just doesn’t work out. Northwestern is run off the court by FAU in a 1st round loss.
5: San Diego State Aztecs
Best Tournament Moment: Last year was the run of a lifetime for San Diego State. The Aztecs made the entire nation happy when they beat last year’s Alabama team, and they kept it going winning in dramatic fashion over Creighton and FAU on their way to their first ever championship appearance. They ran into a buzzsaw UConn team there but it was an incredible run.
Why they can win it all: As you can expect, San Diego State is still one of the best in the nation on defense. They have multiple players back from last year’s team including Jaedon LeDee who’s evolved into the star of this year’s team.
Why they might not: No surprise, but it’s offense that holds this team back. They struggle to shoot from deep and don’t have many players who can put up points.
Best case: San Diego State is ready for an encore. The Aztecs suffocate UAB and Auburn on their way to a rematch with UConn. This time San Diego State doesn’t allow the Huskies to make 3s and it allows them to get revenge. From there they win over Iowa State and North Carolina to move on to yet another championship game. They find Houston waiting for them there, which means it’s not a visually appealing game but the Aztecs grind out a low scoring victory for their first ever national title!
Worst case: San Diego State doesn’t have as many offensive options and it puts them in trouble when UAB gets hot from deep. The Aztecs can’t buy a bucket late and they’re bounced out in the first round. A disappointing end for the Aztecs.
12: UAB Blazers
Best Tournament Moment: UAB had a great year in 1982. They received a 4 seed and upset the 1 seed Virginia on their way to an elite 8 appearance.
Why they can win it all: This team has an offense that can go off on anyone. The Blazers have shooters all over the floor along with an inside presence as well. They rebound the ball well on both ends of the floor to give themselves more opportunities.
Why they might not: This isn’t a super consistent team. They randomly go in spurts where they struggle. Their game against Memphis perfectly displayed the best and the worst this team can offer.
Best case: Like they did in the AAC tournament UAB comes out guns ablazin’. They give themselves a lead and hang on to it to take down San Diego State. They get their shot at in-state foe Auburn in the 2nd round and keep it rolling to take down the Tigers. The Blazers run ends against UConn but it’s apparent this team is going to be a major factor in the American moving forward. Alabama loses in the first round as an added bonus.
Worst case: The bad version of UAB shows up and they’re never competitive with San Diego State. Before Alabama and Auburn fans can even notice UAB made the tournament they are out of it.
4: Auburn Tigers
Best Tournament Moment: Auburn went on an amazing run in 2019 making their first and only final 4 appearance. It ended in heartbreak with a tough 1 point loss to Virginia there.
Why they can win it all: Auburn is a great team on defense. They have willing defenders up and down the lineup. The depth they have allows them to wear out opponents as the game goes on.
Why they might not: This is a very good but not elite team. The Tigers guards are functional but limited. There’s not a true playmaker which would be problematic if it’s a tight game late.
Best Case: Auburn starts the tournament fast, they easily handle both Yale and San Diego State to set up a battle with UConn. It’s a tight game with the Huskies but Auburn’s defense frustrates them and the Tigers get hot on offense to win it. From there the Tigers beat Iowa State to move on to the final 4. They beat North Carolina and win a rock fight over Houston for the program’s first ever national title.
Worst case: Auburn doesn’t have the most intimidating opponent in Yale but the Tigers are sloppier than usual defensive, lose every loose ball and the Bulldogs get hot sending the Tigers home early in an upset.
13: Yale Bulldogs
Best Tournament Moment: Yale has only won one NCAA tournament game in program history. An upset win over Baylor in 2016 where they famously out-rebounded the Bears.
Why they can win it all: Yale boasts being the smartest team in the field which has to count for something. The Bulldogs shoot well inside and out. They also are a strong rebounding team.
Why they might not: Yale isn’t a strong defensive team, especially against better offenses they struggle to get stops. Yale might also struggle to rebound as well against more athletic teams. There isn’t anything that sets this team apart to overcome the advantages that Auburn and others will have.
Best case: Yale isn’t afraid. The Bulldogs get hot from deep to upset Auburn. It’s a truly memorable moment for a program that didn’t regularly even make the tournament until recently. They bow out against San Diego State in the 2nd round but it’s something they’ll always remember.
Worst case: This isn’t a team positioned to pull an upset and it shows. They struggle to find open shots against Auburn’s defense while they struggle to get stops on defense. Yale is out of it before anyone notices in a 30 point loss.
6: BYU Cougars
Best Tournament Moment: BYU made the elite 8 in 1981 as a 6 seed, beating Princeton then upsetting UCLA and Notre Dame along the way. They lost to the 1 seed Virginia with a trip to the final 4 on the line.
Why they can win it all: BYU is an interesting team because they spread you out with their outside in approach. Shooting 3s is almost their first instinct and they look to open up the inside from there. It clearly worked because they were able to make an impact in their first year in the Big 12.
Why they might not: If the 3s don’t fall the entire house crumbles. They are so reliant on 3s that they can’t do much else if they don’t go down and this isn’t often a good approach for the tournament. BYUs recent tournament history hasn’t been good. They haven’t won a tournament game since winning in the first four in 2012, the year after Jimmer. Another funny thing about that 2012 first four was that they beat Iona and both were 14 seeds. Yes! At-Large teams as 14 seeds!!! Crazy considering this year’s At-Large teams were 10s.
Best case: The shots fall and BYU is feeling it right away. The Cougars easily beat Duquesne, and upset Illinois. They get a conference rematch with Iowa State and win that battle. The run ends against UConn in the elite 8 but it’s one of the best in program history and there’s confidence they can compete in the Big 12 moving forward.
Worst case: The shots don’t fall and BYU finds themselves struggling with Duquesne’s defense. Without the 3s falling, BYU is defenseless and is upset by the Dukes. The loss draws more attention to their terrible tournament record and BYU fans are left to wonder when a win will come.
11: Duquesne Dukes:
Best Tournament Moment: It may have been a long time since the Dukes have made the tournament, but they didn’t waste any time making it the first time. The Dukes made the 2nd ever NCAA tournament and made it to the final 4 before losing to eventual national champion Indiana.
Why they can win it all: The Dukes are strong on the defensive end. They guard really well and are great at forcing turnovers. All around they make opposing offenses uncomfortable which is sometimes all you need in the tournament to go on a run. This is also Kevin Dambrot’s last ride so there’s a loose feeling of them having nothing to lose.
Why they might not: The Dukes are one of the shorter teams in the tournament and no surprise they don’t rebound very well. They’re just ok on offense, and sometimes go on stretches where they struggle to score. Sometimes when they play the arena will prematurely drop confetti and it really throws them off.
Best case: Duquesne is ready to make Dambrot’s last ride a long run. The Dukes hassle BYUs shooters all game and throw them off their rhythm which opens it up for the Dukes to pull the upset. The run ends against Illinois but it is already one of the best stories of March.
Worst case: Dambrot’s last ride doesn’t last long. BYU comes out firing and the game is over quickly for the Dukes.
3: Illinois Fighting Illini
Best Tournament Moment: Illinois had the dominant program during the 2005 season, they charged to the final 4 and the national championship but came up just short against North Carolina.
Why they can win it all: Illinois has an explosive offense led by a dynamic duo in Terrance Shannon Jr and Coleman Hawkins. This team looks like one can dominate with all the size you can ask for. Hawkins is a great defender as well.
Why they might not: The tournament has not been kind to the Fighting Illini. Despite multiple teams that should have been capable of doing so they’ve yet to reach the sweet 16 since that run in 2005. They’ve shown enough inconsistency throughout the season to make us wonder if this will be the year or not. Illinois trailed off defensively as the year went on and they don’t have a true point guard which makes end of game situations dicey.
Best case: Illinois is ready to put the tournament struggles behind them. They roll to the sweet 16 with ease and with that pressure out of the way they keep it going by beating Iowa State to move on to the elite 8, and better yet they find Auburn not UConn waiting there. Illinois takes down Auburn to go to the final 4. They take down North Carolina in the final 4 and beat Houston for their first ever national title.
Worst case: Illinois struggles to put away Morehead State most of the game, every time it feels like they’re ready to put them away Morehead State hits a 3 to get back in it. Suddenly with a couple minute left Illinois collapses turning the ball over and Morehead State pulls the upset. Fans are left to wonder if Underwood will ever even get them to the sweet 16.
14: Morehead State Eagles
Best Tournament Moment: In 2011 Morehead State upset in-state foe Louisville in the first round thanks to a late 3 and Kenneth Faried blocking Louisville’s last shot. Truly a sweet moment for this program.
Why they can win it all: Morehead State is an aggressive shooting team they take a lot of 3s and hit them too. They have multiple guards who can distribute to the rest of their offense, including their inside presence which includes OVC player of the year Riley Minix.
Why they might not: As with most teams like this, they live by the 3 but can also die by it. They were not competitive in early November opportunities against some bigger programs but they were shaken early when they lost their best player for the year just before the season started.
Best case: Morehead State manages to make it a battle with Illinois. Every time it feels like the game could get out of reach Morehead State hits a 3 to get back in it. Morehead State pressures Illinois late and they surprisingly collapse allowing the Eagles to emerge victorious. Morehead State is lucky to get Duquesne instead of BYU in the next round and upsets the Dukes as well. Morehead State bows out against Iowa State but it was still a fantastic run, Kentucky and Western Kentucky lose in the first round to help the Eagles be the superior team in the state.
Worst case: It’s November all over again for Morehead State. They’re run off the court easily by Illinois and lose by 30. To make matters worse they lose their coach and multiple players hit the portal.
7: Washington State Cougars
Best Tournament Moment: Did you know? Washington State once made it to the national title. In the 3rd NCAA tournament ever the Cougs charged to the national championship but lost to Wisconsin.
Why they can win it all: This is one of the best surprises in the sport this year. Washington State came out of nowhere to have an amazing team. The Cougs bring a lot of balance they are good on both sides of the ball. On offense they prefer to establish dominance inside but can shoot it outside if it’s available to them. They make things uncomfortable for opposing shooters on defense.
Why they might not: Washington State lacks depth there really isn’t much contribution from their bench and a lot of times they try to keep their starting lineup in as much as possible. They are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the tournament so that’s something to watch if they’re clinging to a late lead.
Best case: Washington State is ready to make the most of this tournament experience. They defeat Drake, then proceed to upset Iowa State. They face Illinois in the sweet 16 but catch the Illini on a bad night and pull the upset to move on to their first elite 8 since that 1941 championship run. It ends against UConn but with uncertainty in their future this is something the folks in Pullman will hold onto for a long time.
Worst case: The Cougs fall behind quickly as they struggle to contain Drakes offense. They never get back in it and just like that a magical season is over without a tournament win. With all the uncertainty around the program, Kyle Smith is willing to listen to other offers and is poached away.
10: Drake Bulldogs
Best Tournament Moment: Drake’s first tournament appearance was in 1969 and they really made it count. Going on a run to the final 4 and when they got there they nearly beat the wagon that was John Wooden’s UCLA squad.
Why they can win it all: Drake has an offense that’s difficult to prepare for. They can score inside and out. It feels Tucker DeVries has been with the program forever and he’s playing at perhaps his highest level yet.
Why they might not: Drake sometimes struggles on defense, especially on the inside. This team doesn’t have much depth either.
Best case: Drake was so close to beating a final 4 participant in Miami last year before flatlining late in the game. This time they’re ready. The Bulldogs upset Washington State to set up a nice in state battle with Iowa State. The Bulldogs take down the Cyclones to claim the state of Iowa as their own. They’re fortunate to find BYU in the sweet 16 who they beat to move on to the elite 8. The run ends against UConn but it’s still an incredible that this program has waited on for some time.
Worst case: Drake’s defense comes back to bite them. Washington State scores at will on them all game and it’s a quick exit for the Bulldogs.
2: Iowa State Cyclones
Best Tournament Moment: Iowa State made one final 4, back in 1944. The Cyclones run ended against eventual national champion Utah.
Why they can win it all: Iowa State has the best rated defense in the country. They actually stole the honor away from Houston in their game against the Cougars. The Cyclones relentlessly frustrate opponents with double teams and they force lots of turnovers. You have to be able to survive runs against this team or the game will get out of control. They have T.J. Otzelberger the Bill Belichick of College Basketball as their coach, yes I heard him called that on a TV broadcast this year.
Why they might not: History isn’t on their side for one. Not only for Iowa State’s program in general but the Cyclones also started outside the top 25 in preseason and for whatever reason teams that start outside the top 25 but get a high seed tend to have a tournament letdown. Iowa State also struggles to manufacture points if their opponent isn’t turning the ball over.
Best case: T.J. Otzelberger the Bill Belichick of College Basketball has his team ready to go. He leads Iowa State past his old team, South Dakota State in the first round and then past Washington State in the 2nd round. Iowa State keeps it rolling with a win over Illinois and then they face UConn. Iowa State is actually built quite well to frustrate UConn the way Creighton did in the Huskies last loss. Iowa State wins and is on to the final 4! They beat North Carolina and Purdue to win the national championship, truly crowning T.J. Otzelberger as the Bill Belichick of College Basketball.
Worst case: T.J. Otzelberger is not the Bill Belichick of College Basketball. Iowa State can’t force South Dakota State into mistakes and struggles to find points on offense. In stunning fashion the Cyclones are out yet again as a 2 seed, bringing flashbacks of when they lost to Hampton as one.
15: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Best Tournament Moment: Hard to say, South Dakota State has made the tournament several times but they haven’t come up with a win yet. They’ve been close multiple times though.
Why they can win it all: This is a team that’s evolved as the season has gone on. They have an amazing point guard in Zeke Mayo and as the year has gone on other weapons have emerged to ease the pressure and let Mayo cook. The difference between this team and other Jackrabbits teams is they play great defense.
Why they might not: History hasn’t been on the Jackrabbits side, they’ve come close so many times but when can they get over the hump? Iowa State is one of the best at double teams and you know they’re going to have a double team on Mayo the whole game.
Best case: A 15 seed has gone to the sweet 16 each of the last 3 years, and each one of them finished top 2 in the regular season conference standings. If this trend continues, South Dakota State is the only team that fits that description. They prove it. Zeke Mayo plays out of his mind, he doesn’t turn the ball over leaving Iowa State without easy baskets and he seemingly can’t miss on the offensive end. South Dakota State gets the upset win over their former coach and Zeke Mayo is enshrined into March lore forever. It doesn’t end there, they upset Washington State in the next round before bowing out against Illinois.
Worst case: The spell of no tournament wins continues. Mayo is swallowed up by the Iowa State defense and no one else steps up. The Jackrabbits are eliminated before anyone realizes that TJ Otzelberger used to coach for them. Seriously why hasn’t that headline existed? Does no one know?
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