Head Coach: Mike Neu is entering his 9th season with the program with a 37-56 record. His time at Ball State is highlighted by an incredible Covid year in 2020 where the Cardinals lost their opener to Miami and then won out from there winning the MAC championship and Arizona Bowl on their way to a rare ranked finish. They made a bowl again in 2021 but it’s been difficult to maintain momentum since then. There’s some pressure to get back to a bowl this season but the administration has recognized the challenges the program faces in this current climate.
Program Outlook: Ball State is struggling to find momentum right now and not because of the head coach or administration. They’re coming off a 4-8 season and the current structure of College Football does not favor the Cardinals unfortunately. Now more than ever they need to dig deeper to find gems in recruiting both from high school and the portal. It only takes finding a few right pieces to have a good season that regains momentum for the program.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: This is where things get really challenging for Ball State. Any time they find star players they tend to lose them in the portal the following year. Ball State’s NIL situation leaves them defensiveness against tampering. They’re in the bottom third of the MAC in returning production, partially because they lost some good players to the portal. They did bring in some 3 star players in from the portal as well to help a bit. Their QB going into the season looks to be Kadin Semonza who played during Ball State’s non-conference last year with mixed results (though his first game as a starter being at Georgia doesn’t help) but didn’t play again in MAC play and redshirted. Kiael Kelly was expected to challenge Semonza when he withdrew from the portal but has moved to the defensive side of the ball.
1Screenshot from fbschedules.com
2024 Schedule Thoughts: This is a weird schedule. If you notice the dates, Ball State isn’t playing their first game until September 7th, to my knowledge they’re the only FBS program not playing in week 1. Despite a longer calendar Ball State has managed to not have a true bye week. The schedule is pretty tough. Missouri State is a fine opener, the Bears are moving up to FBS in 2025 which means they’ll likely “tank” (in other words redshirt key players) this year. 3 straight road games is tough, especially since they’re Miami FL and JMU with a conference game in between. The next 4 games will make or break the season, Western Michigan is expected to improve but it’s a winnable game at home, Kent State is a must win and Vanderbilt is a fine opportunity to beat a SEC opponent. Overall not getting the benefit of a game vs Akron and playing a lot of the tougher opponents in the MAC won’t help, although they avoid Toledo at least.
Vegas Projection: Ball State’s win total is set at 4.5 with the odds leaning toward the under. With only 5 home games it’s going to require some wins on the road to hit the over.
2024 Best Case: The Cardinals finally get some much needed hope. They easily dispatch Missouri State and then have the tough matchup with Miami FL, normally an unlikely game to win but Mario Cristobal is their coach which makes anything possible. Ball State catches them sleeping and pulls off a massive stunner that ignites and excitement that doesn’t go away even through losses to Central Michigan or JMU. They get back on track winning the next 2, beating Vanderbilt on the road for yet another P4 win and then taking the Bronze Stalk from NIU. Ball State takes weeknight MACtion by storm winning their last 4 games on their way to a MAC championship game. The Cardinals take down Toledo there and beat Appalachian State in the Cure Bowl to finish 12-2. Mike Neu is awarded with an extension and he manages to convince a lot of key players to ignore the blatant tampering texts and continue building something special in Muncie.
2024 Worst Case: The tough schedule gets the best of the Cardinals. They win the opener over Missouri State but get blown out 3 weeks in a row after, they fall short against Western Michigan, Kent State and Vanderbilt which sets the tone for a bad season. Ball State can’t pull off another win the rest of the year and finishes 1-11, and despite preferring not to they have no choice but to make a change especially as most of the roster hits the transfer portal.
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