State of the Program: Troy Trojans

Head Coach: Gerad Parker will be entering his first season as the Trojans head coach, he will have big shoes to fill after previous head coach Jon Sumrall won 2 SBC titles in his 2 years. You can check out more about Parker, along with our analysis on the hire here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/04/16/college-football-coach-hire-grades-troy/

Program Outlook: It’s hard to be in a much better spot than where Troy is right now. The Sun Belt is the strongest it’s ever been and yet Troy has won the conference back to back years. In 2022 Troy had their best season ever with a 12-2 record and 19th place final ranking in the AP poll. They have a new coach but the fanbase isn’t expecting a drop off.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: It’s been an offseason of change for Troy, and the roster is no exception. They had a very experienced roster and now a lot of those guys are gone. The Trojans return very little production from last year including most skill position players, the Oline and much of the defense. The QB competition is expected to go into the fall but it sounds like Goose Crowder (Gunnar Watson to GOOSE Crowder?? Wow!) is the favorite to win the job currently. As for the rest of the roster, Troy didn’t necessarily bring in a lot of transfer from the portal, how is this program going to remain competitive?? The answer is a route that Jon Sumrall found success with that Parker will use too, JUCO’s. They’ve found that to be the under appreciated element of recruiting with the rise of the transfer portal, Sumrall had success using this route and Parker looks to follow the same blueprint.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: The first word that comes to mind with this schedule is opportunity. If Troy avoids a drop off despite all the changes the Trojans are set up with some challenging but winnable non-conference games against Memphis and Iowa. They avoid James Madison/Appalachian State in conference play which helps toward defending their title. If Troy has some challenges with the transition this schedule is tough enough to eat them alive though.

Vegas Projection: Troy’s over/under is at 6.5 with the odds geared toward the over. Essentially taking the middle route here for Troy, they drop off a little bit but don’t fall off a cliff is what Vegas seems to be anticipating.

2024 Best Case: Troy gets the season started off strong but handling Nevada and then the real tests begin. The Trojan offense hits some big plays and it becomes apparent their defense hasn’t changed much either as they frustrate Memphis to come out of with a critical win. Troy faces Iowa and their tough defense next, but that’s ok Troy is perfectly comfortable with a rock fight. They force a critical 4th quarter turnover and punch in the only TD of the game for a 10-6 win. Troy handles the next 2 games and picks up a critical conference win at home over Texas State. Troy beats rival South Alabama who struggles with their coaching change, and the grind their way past their last 5 opponents and despite the challenges they come out of that stretch undefeated. Troy is back in the Sun Belt championship and faces a good Appalachian State team once they get there. The Trojans defense leads them on their way to victory. Troy controversially gets stuck with a 12 seed despite the quality victories but they get their shot at Alabama for the first time ever. The Trojans hang with the Tide all game but Jalen Milroe breaks free for a long game winning TD run late, a gutting loss but everyone realizes that there’s good football played in the state outside the SEC, especially with Auburn failing to even reach bowl eligibility and taking a 30 point loss to the same Tide team just weeks prior.

2024 Worst Case: Troy is not reloading their rebuilding and it’s apparent early. What was supposed to be an easy opener against Nevada proves to be tougher than expected and Troy wheezes by with a win. Troy isn’t competitive in the next 2 losses and barely survives disaster against FAMU. Troy wins a close game over ULM, but is pummeled by Texas State. South Alabama blows out Troy on national TV as the Jaguars March to a surprise Sun Belt title, meanwhile Troy limps to a disappointing 4-8 season.