Head Coach: Gus Malzahn is somehow already entering his 4th year with the program. I know time flies when you’re getting old, but seriously it still feels like he was just at Auburn recently. Malzahn has a 24-16 record with the program. Hiring him was a major coup for UCF to become serious Big 12 contenders soon, but it hasn’t happened just yet.
Program Outlook: This is still a young program and now there is a lot of momentum. UCF is in Orlando, a huge city without much for pro teams in it. Also helping is the fact that UCF has a huge alumni base. There’s so much that makes them prime to explode now that they are in the Big 12 and the fanbase is excited to see it happen.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: UCF returns a good amount of players from last year, they’re about middle of the road in the conference in returning production. They did lose QB John Rhys Plumlee to graduation but not to worry UCF made a nice pickup out of the portal with KJ Jefferson at QB. Jefferson previously flashed a lot of potential at Arkansas but regressed in recent years and battled turnovers. The Gus Bus could be the way for Jefferson to maximize his potential but he will need to clean some things up. Speed is often the name of the game for UCF and they have an incredible speedy back in RJ Harvey returning, he’s a threat on every carry. The Knights added transfer Peny Boone to the mix to provide a power element to their ground game. The run game is the engine that makes the Gus Bus go but it’ll be up to the receivers and Jefferson’s arm to not allow defenses to focus solely on stopping the run. Last year’s downfall was the defensive side of the ball wasn’t ready for their new conference, they collapsed from time to time and struggled to stop the run. UCF has some experience back and really attacked this side of the ball with a whole host of transfers to hopefully find improvement. The linebacker unit was especially upgraded with their portal pickups.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: UCF’s non-conference isn’t bad, New Hampshire is a decent FCS foe and Sam Houston could be improved but UCF’s speed typically keeps them safe from an upset against teams like those, the game Knights fans have had circled for years is the trip to Gainesville to take on the Gators, that will be huge for in-state bragging rights. The Big 12 schedule isn’t bad, the Knights avoid the Kansas schools along with Oklahoma State so that’s 3 top contenders off the schedule and they get Utah/Arizona which are teams that aren’t used to the humidity at home. It’s definitely not a schedule that prohibits the Knights from conference championship contention.
Vegas Projection: UCF’s win total is set at 7.5 with the odds geared slightly toward the over. That indicates optimism toward some improvement for the Knights. The Big 12 championship odds are incredibly crowded behind Utah and Kansas State, but UCF is included in that mix.
2024 Best Case: KJ Jefferson steps up with new coaching, the defense improves and the Gus Bus gets rolling. UCF easily moves to 2-0 and then dispatches TCU on the road to move to 3-0, Deion Sanders and co come to town undefeated after non-conference play and a ton of eyes are on the game, UCF is ready for the moment and runs all over the Buffs to move to 4-0 and capture national attention. Next is the showdown with Florida and the Knights are ready they don’t just beat the Gators, they demoralize them in a dominating victory. UCF runs through the rest of the schedule with only one loss and gets Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game, once again the Knights hex over the Cowboys takes effect and they win going away to reach the playoff with a 3 seed that brings a first round bye. The Knights catch Florida State in their first playoff game for their first meeting with the Noles since the Knights moved to FBS. They’re ready for the moment and win by double digits. UCF bows out in a tight game against Ohio State in the semis but they’ve made their presence known in a historic season.
2024 Worst Case: The defense gets worse, KJ Jefferson remains turnover prone and the Gus Bus crashes. A 2-0 start provides a false sense of hope that quickly goes away when UCF can’t find any stops against TCU, but with Colorado coming to Orlando undefeated and all eyes on the game UCF has a chance to change the image of their season. Instead KJ Jefferson serves up a pick 6 to Travis Hunter on the first play of the game that sets the tone for a blowout loss. It gets even worse when UCF is handled by the hated Gators by 20 the next week as fans from around the state laugh at the idea that UCF was turning the “big 3” into the “big 4.” It all sets the tone for a disappointing 4-8 season. Florida State, Miami, and South Florida all make the playoff and even Florida manages to go 8-4, leaving Knights fans left to hear about it all offseason. Worse yet the Arkansas job opens up and Gus Malzahn decides it’s time for him to go back to the SEC.
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