State of the Program: San Diego State Aztecs

Head Coach: Sean Lewis is entering his first year with the program. This is a program that established itself as a top Mountain West contender the last couple decades and Lewis will be looking to get them back there. You can read more about him and the grade for the hire here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/05/16/college-football-coach-hire-grades-san-diego-state/

Program Outlook: As mentioned in the previous section, San Diego State has been one of the top programs in the conference, but dipped slightly in recent years now they look to make their way back to that level. Last year was rough in many ways, this time last year there was a ton of momentum and they seemed destined to become part of the power conferences, joining the Pac-12. Alas the Pac-12 screwed around, never invited them and then collapsed. Things can change fast and now they look to rebound after results on the field weren’t strong either. They may not yet be equipped to win the conference this year but certainly there’s hope they could at least contend.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: There’s going to be a lot of change and fast. San Diego State often carried itself on strong defense and a good running offense but late in the Brady Hoke era the offense transitioned to just simply being slow, plodding and boring…it literally seemed like they weren’t even trying to score at times. The offense will be better just by simply making the effort but there’s some transition. Overall San Diego State is near the bottom of the conference in players returning. The QB position will likely be decided between FSU transfer AJ Duffy and stud freshman Danny O’Neill. The Aztecs are set at RB with Marquez Cooper who reunited with Lewis, he had a couple 1,000+ yard seasons with him at Kent State before a successful stop at Ball State last season. The offensive line is extremely concerning after it got raided by the portal, it’s hard to find suitable replacements there too. The defense will see some changes as well, the secondary was raided as soon as there was a coaching change but a lot of the front 7 stuck together. It’s going to be interesting to see how it all comes together, in general this was neck and neck with UNLV to be the best portal class in the conference so we could see a jump with a few answers.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: This schedule is quietly pretty tough. It’s hard to tell what to expect from Oregon State or Washington State but the Aztecs play both. The Cal game is an opportunity for a headliner win but could be a tough game. Central Michigan is a game that Lewis won’t take lightly but it’s a difficult trip and in general the conference road slate is not friendly. Still there’s definitely a path to return to a bowl.

Vegas Projection: San Diego State’s win total is set at 5.5 with the odds geared toward the over. Vegas sees a return to a bowl game but not MWC title contention just yet.

2024 Best Case: The transfers come in and make an immediate impact for the Aztec Fast offense to quickly get liftoff. They easily win the opener but make a statement with great early wins over Oregon State and Cal. The Aztecs dispatch Central Michigan and Hawaii then don’t let the tricky trip to Laramie get them. They finish the final stretch with only losing one game, making the Mountain West championship with only one loss and a playoff birth on the line. They end up losing to Boise State there but San Diego State wins their bowl and it’s apparent they’re a force in the conference again.

2024 Worst Case: The new offense comes out sloppy and exposes the defense to facing more possession than ever leading to bad results. San Diego State wins the opener but they’re beaten soundly by both Oregon State and Cal making it apparent they aren’t ready to compete yet. It gets worse with an upset loss to Central Michigan on the road that sets the stage for a disappointing 3-9 season as the Aztecs wonder when they can get back in contention.