Head Coach: Butch Jones is entering his 4th year with the program with an 11-26 record. It was a challenge for him to break through but it finally happened with a 6-7 season last year. Jones is probably known most for his time at Tennessee there were highs and lows because he brought them to some of their best seasons they had in a while but there were struggles toward the end of his era along with his “champions of life” quote and the trash can celebration being poked fun of by the internet. This season will be a big one for Jones to continue the momentum he built last year.
Program Outlook: It feels like Arkansas State is a long way from where they were at one point. Years ago they managed to contend for the Sun Belt on an annual basis despite constantly losing coaches, then they found some consistency with Blake Anderson, but things trailed off toward the end of his time. Jones had to fix that and now Red Wolves fans can once again set their sights on hoping to win the conference.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: There’s a lot back for this Red Wolves squad. The offense returns just about everybody led by QB Jaylen Raynor, his throwing and running ability gave this team a spark as a true freshman last year. Raynor’s challenge is to be more accurate this year. I was surprised to see former UCF/USF QB Timmy McClain transfer in after the spring, if he wanted to be a backup that could step in if needed he would have stayed at UCF, he’s a clear challenger to Raynor which makes me worry he didn’t progress as expected this spring. Whoever wins the job will have a nice duo of RBs and a deep group of receivers around them. Receiver Corey Rucker is someone you need to make sure you watch when you can, he’s one of the best in the conference. The offensive line took a hit with center Jacob Bayer having an ACL injury in the spring, but just about everyone else is back. Lots to be excited about with this offense, but the defense is going to determine whether Arkansas State enters Sun Belt title contention or is just ok. They struggled on this side of the ball and their portal moves clearly indicate this is where they had the least amount of confidence.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: There’s a lot here in the non-conference slate. I love the regional games with Arkansas State facing Central Arkansas from within the state and Tulsa who is in a neighboring state. These aren’t easy games either. Central Arkansas returns a ton of experience and will be a dangerous FCS team, especially if the Red Wolves haven’t improved defensively. Tulsa has some talent although they are young and likely a year away from a jump. Michigan and Iowa State are challenges or opportunities depending on how you look at them but those are difficult games back to back. The Red Wolves definitely have a well place bye after those games before they begin conference play. It’s a favorable draw Georgia State/Old Dominion is far from the toughest draw from the East division.
Vegas Projection: Arkansas State’s win total is set at 6.5 with the odds geared toward the under. Vegas doesn’t see the Red Wolves improving at all.
2024 Best Case: Arkansas State is ready to contend for the Sun Belt, the portal helps the defense improve and Raynor takes another step. They open the season handling Central Arkansas and Tulsa, but fall short after battling hard with Michigan. They rebound from the Michigan loss to play tough against Iowa State and Raynor leads the offense down the field late to pull off a massive win for the Red Wolves. They beat South Alabama after the bye to set up a massive showdown at Texas State who’s also having a great year. Arkansas State is unbothered by the tough road environment and wins to take control of the West. They finish strong even winning at Louisiana to go undefeated in conference play and make the Sun Belt championship against an undefeated Appalachian State team. All eyes are on the Mountaineers who are a win away from the playoff but the Red Wolves have other plans. They punch them in the mouth with a quick 14-0 lead and hold on to win the Sun Belt by surprise. Arkansas State makes the playoff as a result, and the run ends in the first round against Alabama but the Red Wolves have in-state bragging rights as the first team from the state to make the playoff, all while Arkansas fails to make a bowl game.
2024 Worst Case: The defense doesn’t improve and Raynor/McClain switch back and forth trading off inconsistent play the entire way. It’s a problem right away as Central Arkansas beats them on opening night, the Red Wolves don’t rebound either. They are beaten soundly by Tulsa, embarrassed by Michigan and are shutout by Iowa State. Before you know it, Arkansas State is 0-6 and on their way to a disappointing 2-10 finish. The disaster of a season leads them to a change as they try to find out how to contend in the Sun Belt again, meanwhile Arkansas rebounds to an 8 win season.
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