State of the Program: New Mexico State Aggies

Head Coach: Tony Sanchez is a former New Mexico State alum who is in his first season as the head coach of the program, he took over after Jerry Kill stepped away from full time head coaching. You can see his full profile and coach hire grade here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/06/04/college-football-coach-hire-grades-new-mexico-state/

Program Outlook: This is a very challenging job but in just a couple years things have changed a lot. When the WAC folded New Mexico State found themselves forced to forge along with independence. It was a challenging existence for the Aggies, but thanks to conference realignment a new opportunity showed up. At the same time Jerry Kill took over the program and started winning immediately. Fast forward a few years and the Aggies program is coming off a 10-4 season that included a 21 point win at Auburn and a conference championship appearance. All of this was unimaginable just a few years ago. It’s been a long time since there was a better time to be an Aggie.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: There’s a lot of upheaval here. A lot of the top players from last year’s team now plays for Vanderbilt. It’s disappointing that Diego Pavia is now gone but it looks like the Aggies have a solid replacement in Deuce Hogan a transfer from Kentucky, but he won’t bring the same mobility that Pavia did. This could be a run first offense because the biggest strength will be the offensive line, this was a solid unit last year and a lot of those guys are back. The defense was raided even worse than the offense but there’s a lot of pieces coming in via the portal to help out. There’s more questions than answers at this point but there’s enough promise to believe they could still pull together a good season.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: The non-conference provides some winnable games against SE Missouri State who isn’t the most intimidating FCS foe, and hated rival New Mexico, but there’s some challenging games at Fresno State and Texas A&M. New Mexico State doesn’t face FCS newcomer Kennesaw State in conference play which could be a disadvantage. Overall with the right answers there’s room for the Aggies to contend.

Vegas Projection: New Mexico State’s win total is set at 4.5 with the odds geared toward the under. Vegas definitely sees this as a reset year for the Aggies.

2024 Best Case: There’s no need for a rebuild at New Mexico State the culture is changed and the new players come in ready to go. The Aggies open with a win and turn a lot of heads with a surprise upset over Liberty in an After Dark special. The Aggies ride that early momentum to a great 9-3 season, there’s no 21 point win on the road against a SEC foe this time, but the Aggies are back in the CUSA championship game. They still come up short once again but it’s clear they have staying power at the top of the conference and winning their bowl game is a nice consolation prize. It’s made even better when their southwest rivals New Mexico and UTEP both struggle.

2024 Worst Case: A program like this can’t withstand the losses they suffered this offseason and continue like usual, this is a rebuild. New Mexico State wins the opener but struggles after. The Aggies collapse to 2-10 and worse yet they lose to both New Mexico and UTEP who both make bowl games.