Head Coach: Jason Candle is somehow entering his 9th year with the program. He has a 65-35 record and has won 2 MAC championships, plus made it to another with the Rockets. They got into a funk during the middle of his time here with some strange seasons (injuries, one score losses, Covid) but have rebounded from that to once again be a constant conference contender. Toledo has to be happy with the stability Candle has provided.
Program Outlook: The last decade plus has allowed Toledo to make their position in the conference clear. They are one of the premier MAC programs and you can never count them out of the conference title hunt. They’re probably built a little better to succeed in this NIL era compared to other MAC programs thanks to being in a decent size but not too big of a city. Last year they went 11-3 and had a perfect regular season conference record.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: Toledo has lost a ton of talent from last year’s amazing squad. QB DeQuan Finn is off to Baylor, Peny Boone went to Louisville, then Colorado, then landed at UCF. Quinyon Mitchell and a few others are off to the NFL. So why is there optimism for the Rockets?? It’s because Jason Candle has been a recruiting machine. In the last several years the Rockets have recruited circles around the rest of the conference. They are deeper than most teams in the conference. The Rockets have a lot of confidence in new QB Tucker Gleason who backed up Finn the last 2 years, he will have a still loaded group of receivers and tight ends to throw to. If there’s one concern it’s the offensive line because all 5 starters from last year are gone, it’s tough to see that wholesale of a change, and this was an area that Toledo tried to bolster a bit via the portal. The front 7 of the defense is incredibly deep, Toledo loves to rotate guys up there and as a result they have a ton of experienced guys back. The secondary is perhaps the biggest worry point because it’s hard to replace a guy like Mitchell but they do have a good safety duo in Malik Hook and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren who will help prevent things from getting too messy back there.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: This schedule is pretty balanced. Toledo gets a bit of an easier opening but then things get real in a hurry with Mississippi State, Western Kentucky and Miami in a 3 game stretch. We will know a lot about the Rockets and where they are after that stretch. Mississippi State is under a complete reset but the “SEC” jersey patch would make a victory there really resonate for the Rockets and put them in contention for the 5th auto bid for the playoff. The MAC schedule overall is tricky, you could argue Toledo plays all 5 of their biggest competitors for the conference title.
Vegas Projection: Toledo’s win total is set at 8.5 with the odds geared toward the under. It seems to be a reflection of Toledo’s tough conference schedule, but if Vegas is correct it would be a disappointing season for the Rockets.
2024 Best Case: Despite all the roster transition the Rockets reload, not rebuild and are ready to contend again. They roll into Starkville 2-0 and take advantage of a Mississippi State team that’s starting over and the Rockets pull off a victory. They avoid a letdown and pass a tough challenge against Western Kentucky. The Rockets then beat Miami to open conference play which sets them up to run through the rest of the MAC slate undefeated once again. This time, however, the Rockets aren’t beaten by Miami in the MAC championship rematch, winning running away and they earn a bid to the playoff. The Rockets are matched with Ohio State in the first round and they take advantage of their chance at their in-state foe. Their defense frustrates Will Howard and forces him into mistakes all game. The Rockets turn the turnovers into the points and make the most of each play for a stunning upset. The run ends in the next round but who cares? The Rockets are the only team in Ohio to win a playoff game this season and Bowling Green doesn’t even make a bowl.
2024 Worst Case: It doesn’t matter that Toledo has out recruited the rest of the conference, this is too much transition. They open 2-0 after barely surviving UMass, but they are beaten soundly in the next 3 games. Which sets the tone for a disappointing 4-8 season including a loss to rival Bowling Green who ends up winning the MAC. More players transfer out and Candle decides it’s time to get out and leaves for a power conference offensive coordinator job.
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