Head Coach: Shawn Clark is entering his 5th year with Appalachian State and has compiled a 35-18 record. His first game as the head coach was actually their bowl game in 2019 when he led them to win to cap off what was a great season that year. App State has made the conference championship but has yet to win the conference under his watch. Clark is a former App State lineman and it’s no surprise he was their Oline coach before he took over as the head coach.
Program Outlook: It’s really impressive when you look at what Appalachian State has done. They became a dominant FCS program then transitioned to FBS and very quickly established themselves as a great program at this level. You always have to consider them a top contender to win the Sun Belt each year and now under the new system for the College Football playoff the Mountaineers have a shot to compete in the playoff if things go right in any season.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: Appalachian State has a lot of returning production. They are led by QB Joey Aguilar who is in his 2nd year starting and he had a great year 1, he will be throwing to one of the better receiver units in the Sun Belt and pretty much everyone is back. This isn’t just a passing team however, the Mountaineers have a very balanced attack. While they lost Nate Noel to Missouri via the portal they still have a deep group of backs returning, it was often a mystery to find out which back they would feature the most each game, I suspect that will continue. Shawn Clark’s identity in this program is seen up front as the Mountaineers had an Oline that could carve out holes for the run game and protect in the passing game, there were some changes in the interior so they hit the portal to secure a couple starters there. The defense will carry the keys for how far this season can go. App State’s defense did some good things most of the time but they also had some meltdowns particularly against some of the best running backs they faced. Kimani Vidal (Troy) ran for 233 in the Sun Belt championship, Rashad Amos carried Miami’s offense with 180 yards in the bowl game and they had to rally to beat Southern Miss earlier in the year thanks to Frank Gore Jr’s 247 yards. There were 2 issues on the defensive front, the first is they were young which led to many breakdowns, with more experience that could be improved this season although they will be aggressive because… They are a bit undersized so they’re aggressive because they have to be, there’s a ton of depth that makes this rotation a lot of fun however. The secondary is led by Ethan Johnson who is one of, if not the best corner in the Sun Belt. They have some other returning starters along with a couple transfers to really bring this unit together they forced turnovers at a nice clip last year so they’ll need to keep that up.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: This is an exciting schedule for a team that’s expected to be really good. App State will get their shot at Clemson, and it’s going to require an incredible effort to win that one but they can make a statement by simply keeping that game close. The other showdown that needs to be talked about is their home game against Liberty, that game could go a long way in deciding who gets the 5th playoff auto bid. App State also needs to avoid tripping up. Their last few season have been weighed down by losing games they shouldn’t and there’s a lot of traps on here. East Carolina on the road immediately after Clemson could be trouble if the Pirates find an offense, App State also has back to back road games at Marshall and Louisiana. Coastal Carolina has given them trouble in the past including last season and Deeper Than Hate immediately following the showdown with JMU could also be trouble.
Vegas Projection: Appalachian State’s win total is set at 8.5 with the odds geared toward the under. Vegas is expecting a very disappointing result for the Mountaineers here, it may not even be that they aren’t expecting them to win the Big games, Vegas just lacks faith that App State can avoid tripping up in these tough road traps.
2024 Best Case: App State is able to solidify the defense and their offense gets even better. This much is on display when they catch Clemson off a close loss to Georgia. The Mountaineers hassle Cade Klubnik into turnovers and control the ball all game to win in Death Valley. They avoid a letdown against ECU and South Alabama. Then the Mountaineers take on undefeated Liberty in a huge showdown. It’s a thrilling game but App State takes over the 4th quarter to win. Once again they avoid the traps to beat Marshall and Louisiana. The Mountaineers roll past the rest of the their conference slate until another showdown…James Madison doesn’t struggle at all with a new head coach, the Dukes beat UNC earlier in the year and are also undefeated. Appalachian State wins the showdown over the Dukes, and then caps off the undefeated season by destroying Georgia Southern in the finale. Appalachian State gets yet another challenge in the conference championship against an undefeated Texas State team and it’s clear a playoff bid is on the line. The Mountaineers run all over the Bobcats to win it and reach the CFP. It’s not without controversy as Clemson beats NC State for the 2nd time to win the ACC championship. Clemson gets the 4th bye not App State, but App State is still rewarded with an 8 seed and a matchup against NC State’s best team ever seeing that the Wolfpack only lost to Clemson all season. App State’s familiarity with Grayson McCall helps them in the matchup they frustrate him and the Wolfpack offense and pull off the massive win and forever bragging rights. App State bows out of the playoff after battling hard with Georgia but falling short.
2024 Worst Case: App State struggles past ETSU which already shows issues and then they’re blown out by Clemson. App State doesn’t recover either, East Carolina has an improved team and they show it by beating the Mountaineers. They don’t get to recover much either as they lose to Liberty, Marshall and Louisiana. It all leads to a stunning collapse to 3-9. Worse yet Georgia Southern wins the Sun Belt and suddenly it’s an offseason where App State has to figure things out fast.
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