State of the Program: Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

Head Coach: Derek Mason is entering his first year as the head coach of the Blue Raiders. He was a head coach one other time at Vanderbilt, it wasn’t successful but almost no one succeeds there. Here’s a deeper look at his coach profile and hire grade: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/02/27/college-football-coach-hire-grades-middle-tennessee-state/

Program Outlook: Mid Tenn State has generally been a solid CUSA program. They haven’t had many great years but they’re almost never bad either. Rick Stockstill did a lot for this program during this long stint, and the Nashville area changed a lot while he was there. Ultimately MTSU needed a jolt of excitement to get the area to notice them and help them recruit better, Derek Mason has already provided some of that this offseason.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: As you could expect with a coaching change there’s a lot of transition. The offense carries a lot of questions at receiver and the offensive line where they don’t have much experience returning, but they did utilize the portal to hopefully find options. In general this offense probably could use the change anyway, it was extremely inconsistent, they would look awesome on some drives then go into a series of a 3 and outs. We can’t blame QB Nicholas Vattiato too much, he was a lot of fun to watch and is the centerpiece for this offense. By nature we can expect the defense to at least be decent, Derek Mason’s team rarely field a bad defense but there’s some work to be done. They’ll need to figure out what works best up front as they go because there’s a lot gone and overall this is expected to be a pretty young unit. They have a strong pair of linebackers who could help clean up any messes and CB Tyrell Raby/S Marvae Myers will be tasked with leading a rather green secondary.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: I don’t like this schedule for this team. The non-conference schedule of Ole Miss, Duke and Memphis is very tough, even though I do love MTSU getting that home opportunity against Duke. Then for some reason they face their rivals WKU in 100 Miles of Hate in the middle of that stretch. Fortunately their opening for Tennessee Tech is expected to struggle, and the schedule eases up a bit after to allow MTSU to find some footing. Those initial weeknight CUSA games will be critical for them to build momentum.

Vegas Projection: Middle Tennessee is another program in the pack of CUSA teams with a win total set at 4.5 wins. The odds are geared toward the over so there might be some optimism that they can improve.

2024 Best Case: The new pieces hit the ground running quickly and that makes the Blue Raiders a contender. They beat Tennessee Tech and battle hard with Ole Miss before eventually relenting. They take down rival WKU in 100 Miles of Hate, before their huge home opportunity against Duke. The Blue Raiders show up strong behind a good home crowd and get a massive win over Duke. They catch Memphis having a disappointing season, and defeat the Tigers for in-state bragging rights. The Blue Raiders take the momentum into conference play where they win 6 of the next 7 to make the CUSA championship game. They lose the rematch to Liberty but win their bowl game to finish 11-3. It’s one of the best seasons in program history and a clear indicator that the Derek Mason era will be very good in Murfreesboro.

2024 Worst Case: This is a new start and it might take some time, but they struggle on offense which is similar to what happened for Mason at Vanderbilt. They open 1-4 beating Tennessee Tech but are uncompetitive, beaten and bruised after that series of games. They don’t recover against Louisiana Tech to lose to them and they’re taken down by Kennesaw State. They don’t recover at any point either. Struggling their way to 1-11.