Head Coach: Mack Brown is entering his 6th season in this stint with the program and 16th season overall with the Tar Heels. He has a 107-73-1 record with the program. His first stint was from 1988-1997. They were incredible at the end of his tenure finishing in the Top 10 of the AP poll the last 2 seasons. Brown is of course also known for his tenure at Texas where they were very good and won a national title in 2005. With Saban retiring and Harbaugh off to the NFL, Brown is one of only 3 active head coaches with a national title. He is turning 73 before the season starts, but DON’T YOU DARE say he’s going to retire any time soon!
Program Outlook: North Carolina is in an interesting spot. This decade has been one of the most consistent in program history, outside of a couple ugly years at the end of the Larry Fedora era they’ve made a bowl each season. Yet you can sense some frustration for Heels fans, there’s so much potential and they just can’t seem to crack their way to the top of the conference. The last 2 years in particular were defined by strong starts and late season collapses. There’s the potential and the resources, it’s a question of when or if it will ever happen.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: It starts at QB for the Tar Heels after having success with Sam Howell, immediately followed by Drake Maye there’s an expectation of success here. The job is up in the air though, Conner Harrell took over for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl when Maye opted out and played pretty well, but understandably made some mistakes. They brought in former LSU/A&M QB Max Johnson to compete with him, he takes care of the ball in a way that he’s more willing to take sacks than risk a pick, he doesn’t have nearly the arm strength/zip that his predecessors had. A reason for concern about this competition is that former backup Jacobly Criswell returned to the program in the spring after moonlighting for a spell at Arkansas. I worry they brought in Criswell as a sign that they lack confidence in the options they had. If the Tar Heels can figure out the QB position, the offense will be really good. The Heels have one of the best players in all of College Football in RB Omarian Hampton and the offensive line in front of him did a great job carving out running lanes last season and I don’t expect that to change. There’s a solid group of receivers to throw to as well. The problem for the Tar Heels is the other side of the ball. Their defense capsized against the run late in the year, and overall defense has been their problem the last few years. It’s a mystery why they can’t figure it out, they’ve tried different defensive coordinators and recruiting isn’t bad. The Tar Heels also struggle to rush the passer, it’s a seasoned front returning so there’s always hope that could lead to improvement, they hold the keys to the season. If there’s improvement up front, there’s enough to like on the backend of the defense to maybe see this unit take a step forward.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: I always like seeing North Carolina’s non-conference schedule because you never know what it’s going to look like. This one is a little more standard though. The Minnesota series is very random and their opener is the backend of that. Playing Minnesota in that Thursday opener isn’t going to be easy, but it’s a critical one for the Heels. I suspect Biff Poggi’s Charlotte squad will be better, but likely isn’t ready to pose a threat. NC Central was a FCS playoff team a year ago, but UNC should handle them. James Madison is going to be a dangerous game, the Dukes will look different but are still a very formidable foe. The ACC schedule isn’t the easiest or worst. Florida State on the road will be tough and so will NC State, but there’s not many games that aren’t winnable and of course there’s a lot of losable games as well. I’d say the schedule mostly set them up in a good place though.
Vegas Projection: North Carolina’s win total is set at 7.5 with the odds geared toward the over. We shouldn’t be surprised that Vegas has them pegged as an 8 win team again.
2024 Best Case: Harrell takes the reigns as the QB of the present and future. Despite a tough opener he isn’t intimidated and leads the Heels to a comfortable win over Minnesota. The Heels roll past the rest of their non-conference slate, beat Duke, Pitt and Georgia Tech to move to 7-0. The Heels don’t suffer a letdown to Virginia this time around and set up a massive showdown with Florida State. Behind Hampton’s legs and their improved defense hassling DJ U, the Heels take down the Noles on the road. They avoid a letdown against Wake Forest and are treated to surprisingly warm clear weather when they face Boston College. That leads into their Rivalry showdown with NC State with an undefeated record. The Heels get revenge for their losses to the Wolfpack the last couple years, they shoot out to a quick 21-0 lead and never look back in a satisfying blowout win. They cap it all off by beating Clemson in the ACC championship behind yet another big game from Hampton. Omarian Hampton gets close to winning the Heisman but of course is beaten out by a QB. The Tar Heels season is rewarded with a bye in the playoff and they get a regional matchup with Tennessee in their first matchup, the Heels get in a tight battle but take down the Vols for a huge bragging rights win. Chaos reigns on this side of the bracket leaving North Carolina with a matchup against Utah for a national title spot. They go back and forth with the Utes all game long but Harrell comes through with a late drive to win the game. North Carolina’s amazing run leads to a national title appearance against Georgia, they don’t win that one but it’s clear Mack Brown is only getting started. Meanwhile more coaches that say he’s about to retire get fired.
2024 Worst Case: The QB picture remains murky, and yes the defense stinks again. Minnesota runs the ball down the Heels throats all game long and the offense never gets in a rhythm in a blowout loss to the Golden Gophers. North Carolina fails to recover against Charlotte either, Charlotte ends up as good in real life as they are in College Football 25 and the Heels are unexpectedly 0-2. It gets even worse when losses to James Madison and Duke follow. They end the season a terrible 2-10 while losing to Virginia and their in-state foes. NC State crashes the College Football playoff and makes a surprise run to the national title game, Duke wins 8 games again, Wake and Virginia make a bowl while all of them look down on UNC. Mack Brown is forced to accept the other coaches on the recruiting trail are right and decides it’s time for him to retire after all.
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