State of the Program: San Jose State Spartans

Head Coach: Ken Niumatalolo enters his first head as the head coach of the Spartans. He comes in after having a lot of success at Navy in his prior stop. You can read more about him here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/05/23/college-football-coach-hire-grades-san-jose-state/

Program Outlook: San Jose State sits in a good place right now. The Spartans program has a history of struggling and when things go bad they’re typically down a while but now they’ve had 3 winning seasons in the last 4 years (consider they only have 6 total since 1992) and made a hire that can keep them there. Let’s not forget this program was on the wrong side of the 3 way tie atop the Mountain West at the end of last year.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: I know what you are thinking, San Jose State is moving to an option heavy offense with Ken Niumatalolo at the helm, but that’s far from the truth. Niumatalolo brought in Craig Stutzmann, a former Hawaii receiver to bring in a pass heavy offense. It’s going to take some time to figure out the QB, former Washington State walk-on Emmett Brown is competing with Walker Eget who’s been with the program a while for the job. At one point Jay Butterfield a former star recruit at Oregon was the favorite (he was the backup in 2023) but it seems he fell out of favor with the staff quickly. The picture is murky but it seems like Eget has picked up the offense the quickest. Whoever wins the job will have a strong group of receivers to throw to. One of the biggest early recruiting wins was convincing receiver Nick Nash to withdraw from the portal, again sometimes the biggest wins are the ones you keep, he’s a stud. Receiver Justin Lockhart is essentially an addition at this point, he was a top receiver in 2022 but missed all of last year because of injuries. It’s a reset at RB with their top duo of backs graduating but they have a duo of small quick backs in Jabari Bates and Grambling transfer Floyd Chalk IV, also watch for true freshman Lamar Radcliffe to potentially make an impact. He was a huge pickup when Niumatalolo first got here, he was a 4 star recruit that got instantly dropped to a 3 when he committed to a Mountain West program. San Jose State’s defense was confusing last season they weren’t great at making 3rd down stops or getting after opposing QBs but finished 2nd in the conference. There’s a lot of transition here, a lot of the top players on this side of the ball followed Brent Brennan to Arizona. It’s not all bad though, there’s some good pieces to build around here. Defensive lineman Soane Toia and linebacker Jordan Pollard were named to the Preseason All-MWC team. They’ll be the cornerstones for the defense, linebacker is expected to be a strength overall but the defensive line as a whole is inexperienced and lacks size, fortunately that’s not something new to Niumatalolo, I suspect he can help find a good rotation there. The secondary doesn’t have a lot of experience but it seems to be coming together in good order, they brought in some transfers to add more competition here as well.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: If you want to know where the preseason pessimism for San Jose State comes from, it’s likely because of the schedule. This is pretty rough. They got one of the worst draws possible in MWC play, they have to face the top 6 teams from the preseason MWC poll, they’re the only team in the conference that plays both of the Pac-2 programs on the road. Washington State was a scheduled non-conference game, and San Jose State hosted Oregon State last year. Sacramento State is far from a soft opener (truTV After Dark!), the Hornets have stung their last 2 FBS foes beating Stanford last year and eviscerating Colorado State in 2022. Sacramento State’s name fits, it’s literally a Hornet’s nest that the Spartans have stumbled into. Kennesaw State is transitioning to FBS so that might be a reprieve from the tough schedule, and it’s cool that San Jose State closes the year with Stanford, that will be a challenging game though.

Vegas Projection: San Jose State’s win total is set at 4.5 with the odds geared slightly toward the under. Not an optimistic picture.

2024 Best Case: San Jose State settles on a QB, the defense comes together and they’re ready to mix it up with the top. The Spartans handle the opening test against Sacramento State to set the tone that they’re still going to be a strong team and it sets them up to make a statement against Air Force. Niumatalolo knows the option well and it plays in the Spartans favor, their defense is disciplined against it and their offense carves out enough points to pull off a huge win. The Spartans take down the Owls to move to 3-0 and set up a showdown with Washington State on The CW (After Dark!) the Spartans battle hard but lose that one. That does nothing to stop their momentum as they win the next 3 games to move to 6-1. They win 3 more games in the final stretch including beating Fresno State and Stanford for bragging rights. They don’t make the MWC championship but finishing 10-3 after a bowl win is a clear indication that Niumatalolo will make this program a contender.

2024 Worst Case: Ok, maybe this will take a bit. It’s clear the new pieces aren’t ready from the jump as the Spartans are blown out by Sacramento State in the opener, and it doesn’t get better against Air Force either. What was maybe supposed to be an easier game against Kennesaw State isn’t, the Owls don’t find the transition to FBS hard and they prove to be too much for the Spartans. Overall, their last chance to get a win is against Nevada but they too are better than expected. San Jose State doesn’t win that one and struggles their way all the way to 0-12. Ken Niumatalolo sees the writing on the wall, going back to being a head coach was a mistake, and he steps down to be an assistant at BYU instead.