Head Coach: Timmy Chang is entering his 3rd year as the head coach of the Rainbow Warriors with an 8-18 record. This is a job with unique qualifications and not everyone is suited for it. It’s been a slow rebuild for Chang after he followed the mess that Todd Graham left. Chang is of course known for much more than his time as a coach he’s also a former legendary QB for the Rainbow Warriors program.
Program Outlook: I always loved watching Hawaii football growing up and while they were good I always wondered how they couldn’t just recruit anyone they wanted, living there on a full ride would be the coolest college experience possible. It’s not until I’ve been on a plane to Hawaii that I realized what the challenges are. Every road game is a minimum 4 hour flight so these kids spend a lot of time on airplanes and likewise it’s hard to recruit much outside the state. Still this is a program that has experienced a lot of success, they’ve faced some challenges recently but Timmy Chang is trying to build this the right way.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: Hawaii returns more production than just about everyone. If you know anything about Hawaii football you know they’re going to sling it all around. They have the QB to do it, Brayden Schager had some growing pains but he finished last year strong and is primed to take off this fall. He has a great group of receivers to do it Pofele Ashlock is one of the best receivers in the Mountain West, Alex Perry is a young receiver who flashed last year and they have good depth. They did recently got some bad news as the explosive Steven McBride got into trouble, he won’t be seen this year unless he’s cleared of any wrongdoing. The offensive line lost one of their top guys to Arizona State in the portal but has 3 starters back, it’s improving but it would help if they could take another step, Hawaii seldom ran the ball last year but if they can find more of a ground game it might help them execute better in the RedZone. Hawaii took some steps in the right direction defensively in the last month of the season but the defensive line does have to replace some guys. They have a strong group of linebackers helped by the fact that 2022 leading tackler Logan Taylor is back after being injured most of this last season. This secondary has a lot of experience back and looks to be a huge strength for the team. The main key will be figuring out how to get better at stopping the run.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: This schedule is really not bad at all. Hawaii was originally slated to host Oregon and UCLA back to back weeks but Oregon ditched the week zero game a few months back, for Hawaii it certainly makes the schedule easier to lose a top playoff contender and play Delaware State a FCS team that went 1-10 last year instead. The UCLA game is a really cool home opportunity in primetime. Sam Houston is on the road but a winnable game and Hawaii gets a 2nd FCS foe when they face Northern Iowa who is traditionally a really tricky FCS team but they’re coming off a down year. Northern Iowa did very quietly hire former Washington State QB Luke Falk as offensive coordinator. Defensive coordinator and special teams coordinator are tbd it seems none of these are on their website which is hilarious. The 2nd FCS team means that Hawaii needs 7 wins to reach bowl eligibility, they typically play 13 games in a season but this year Hawaii struggled to even find a 12th game. The conference schedule isn’t bad, getting Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV isn’t easy but Hawaii also plays a lot of teams who are trying to figure things out like they are. There’s a path to bowl eligiblity here.
Vegas Projection: Hawaii’s win total is set at 4.5 with the odds geared greatly toward the over. Not an optimistic total but at the same time Vegas definitely doesn’t see them winning less than 5 games.
2024 Best Case: Hawaii gets back to being the Hawaii we know and love from years ago. The run and shoot in its full glory and they pass it all over the place with some contributions from the run game. They open with a dominant start over Delaware State but they really capture the nation’s attention against UCLA. With all eyes on them they make a statement with Schager throwing it all over the place and leading them to a massive win. The Rainbow Warriors carry the momentum to a 4-0 start and they open conference play strong by winning a shootout over San Diego State. Hawaii hits a tougher stretch but it doesn’t stop them, they win 1 of the next 2 games and then finish strong winning 4 of their last 5 to clinch a 10 win season. Hawaii misses the Mountain West championship but they make their return to a bowl game by hosting the Hawaii bowl and winning it. It’s a huge season showing that Timmy Chang has this program ready to return to the glory days, and we are all glad to catch exciting football for the Hawaii test again.
2024 Worst Case: The execution just isn’t there and their defense still can’t stop the run. Hawaii still doesn’t return to being good. After winning the opener over Delaware State they’re blown out by UCLA. The struggles don’t end against Sam Houston as the Bearkats run all over Hawaii and they don’t even find relief against Northern Iowa the Panthers are better than expected but Hawaii doesn’t execute against their defense is a devastating loss. With no momentum heading into conference play Hawaii is in a bad spot, and they wind up 2-10 when it’s all done. Fans are just left to wonder if they can ever find their way back to the glory days with more and more in-state players leaving the island for college.
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