Head Coach: Tom Herman is entering his 2nd season as the head coach of the Owls with a 4-8 record. It was a building season along with them joining a new conference. Herman had lots of success in his career, he led Ohio State to a national title in 2014 as their Offensive coordinator. Herman went and immediately unlocked Houston’s potential winning the American in his first season and a 2 TD win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl. The next season they notched massive wins over Baker Mayfield Oklahoma and a Lamar Jackson led Louisville team both by double digits. Herman’s time at Texas was ok, he won a Sugar Bowl over Georgia there but eventually a disappointing couple seasons occurred and he was let go. This is his first head coaching opportunity since then.
Program Outlook: Florida Atlantic’s athletic department as a whole is on the rise. This helped them earn a spot in the AAC and the Herman hire was a message they meant business. There’s a lot of potential and optimism that this program can become one of the best in this conference.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: So when you see FAU is a sleeper team in the AAC there’s 2 reasons, the first is Tom Herman and we’ll get to the next reason shortly. This roster has a TON of question marks. The QB position isn’t one of them Cam Fancher comes over from Marshall to start, it felt like he really lost confidence at the end of last season so Herman will need to push him along he’s shown potential. The rest of the skill positions are a total mystery the Owls will be relying on inexperienced guys to step in and make an impact whether it’s young homegrown talent or guys who came in via the portal who were looking for an opportunity. The offensive line is set at center with Frederico Maranges who’s one of the best in the conference but they’ll need to sort out the best combination around him, the Owls really struggled with allowing sacks and TFL’s last year. The defense was ahead of the offense last season and generally did its job. The Owls will need find some replacements. The defensive line will be ok if Marlon Bradley stays healthy, but they also lack bigger meatier men it’s a smaller unit up front. Linebacker is going to be a strength especially because they return leading tackler Jackson Ambush, that’s an elite name for a linebacker. The secondary is going to be a mystery there’s not much experience returning and only a couple guys coming in from the portal with previous experience. Again a lot of questions but with Herman at the helm you can’t get too worried about a youth movement. There’s a good chance he pushes the right buttons.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: This is reason #2 for optimism for the Owls. This schedule is one of the easiest in the conference, the Owls face only 2 teams that made a bowl last season. It starts with the non-conference where their biggest test is likely the opener against a rebuilding Michigan State team. They also face FIU in the Shula Bowl and UConn, both of those teams are sorting things out. They also face Wagner a NEC team coming off a 4-7 season so they shouldn’t pose a challenge. I felt like I had deja vu with a FAU vs Wagner game, it turns out that’s because this will be the 3rd time they’ve played since 2012, why does FAU like playing Wagner so often? The conference schedule falls very nice for the Owls, they face UTSA/South Florida from the big 4 and Army is at home. Everyone else is expected to finish toward the bottom half of the conference.
Vegas Projection: Florida Atlantic’s win total is set at 6.5 with the odds geared toward the under. The conference preseason poll was more optimistic about the Owls than Vegas is, although some improvement is expected.
2024 Best Case: Tom Herman has the boys ready to go and the Owls are ready to rise. They make a statement to open the season with a 10 point win over Michigan State and follow it up by beating Army. The Owls roll past the next 4 games to set up a huge showdown with UTSA. It’s a back and forth battle between the Owls and Roadrunners but FAU pulls off the win. That sets up a massive Friday night showdown against a South Florida team that only lost to Alabama. It’s a back and forth battle once again but the Owls emerge victorious over the Bulls for in-state superiority, even though it’s transitive the Owls can claim they could do something that Miami FL couldn’t do which was beat USF. FAU rolls past the rest of the regular season undefeated to set up a conference title showdown against Tulane, the Owls fall just short of beating the Green Wave but they earn their chance against Miami FL on the field and the Owls follow through against the Canes for a huge victory, a 13-1 record overall and 4-0 against teams in their state and yet Tom Herman is just getting started.
2024 Worst Case: Maybe this will take longer than expected. The Owls are crushed by Michigan State and Army out of the gate, but it gets even worse when they’re beaten by FIU the next week in the Shula Bowl and one of Pitbull’s 12 FIU tweets is dunking on the Owls. The Owls are crushed by UConn the next week as they still fail to reach the win column. They finally beat Wagner but that’s it for wins on the season as the Owls lose out from there. South Florida wins the American and crashes the College Football Playoff, FIU make a surprise run to the CUSA championship game which leads to a surprise 13th tweet from Pitbull, Miami FL makes it to the national title, FSU makes the playoff and UCF nearly does as well. Even Florida finds their way to 8 wins and suddenly everyone in the state is cool except FAU, Tom Herman decides this isn’t going to work and leaves for an offensive coordinator job in the SEC.
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