State of the Program: James Madison Dukes

Head Coach: Bob Chesney is entering his 1st season as the head coach of the Dukes. He comes in after building Holy Cross into a winner. You can read more about his profile and hire grade here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/02/12/college-football-coach-hire-grades-james-madison/

Program Outlook: James Madison is a program with a lot of resources thanks to a huge student body. This has allowed them to be very successful at about everything. They battled North Dakota State as one of the dominant programs in FCS but it became clear the Dukes and their fans needed a new challenge. They moved up to FBS and instantly established themselves as a top program in the Sun Belt. Had the Dukes been “officially” bowl eligible last season there could have been an argument on whether they deserved the New Years 6 slot.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: As you can imagine with a coaching change there’s a lot of transition, the Dukes had a great roster and everyone wanted a piece of it. That’s not to say they don’t have pieces, they definitely do. One difference were about to see is Bob Chesney is an offensive minded coach, he brought some awesome offenses to Holy Cross and you can expect the same here. Their QB will be former Washington QB Dylan Morris, he was an extremely talented recruit out of high school and played well for Washington during an abbreviated Covid season in 2020. In 2021 he started again and it did not go well, Washington’s offense was painfully bad. I always felt like it wasn’t Morris’ fault, Washington’s scheme was so bad it felt like they always found the most difficult route to earn every yard. Michael Penix came in and that was it for Morris starting until now, this is his chance to prove himself. The pressure won’t be on Morris however, you’re going to see this team run the ball a lot the backfield from last season is gone but not to worry they brought in a really good RB in Ayo Adeyi from North Texas, a former 4 star recruit George Pettaway who has potential but was buried on a loaded North Carolina depth chart and Tyler Purdy followed the staff over from Holy Cross for good measure. Making room for those backs will be an experienced offensive line, it’s great for the Dukes these guys stuck around and they got some players out of the portal to help with depth. Receiver is somewhat of a question mark they’ll be relying on some former backups and a group of transfers led by former UConn receiver Cam Ross. It’s going to be difficult for JMU to maintain the same level of dominance they’ve had on defense the last 2 years. The Dukes absolutely suffocated opposing ground games but there’s a lot to replace especially up front. That’s not to say the cupboard is bare, there’s still a lot of talent. A lot of it could be from the portal, it’s going to be very fun to see what Eric O’Neill can do for this defense, he was an absolute menace for the LIU Sharks, he will have Terry Lockett a transfer from Syracuse on the other side. The Dukes will be loaded at linebacker with Holy Cross transfer Jacob Dobbs coming over he’s a beast, and Taurus Jones returns he was an all-conference player in 2022 but spent a lot of last season hurt. Chauncey Logan will return at corner to lead the secondary along with a few vets from the program, depth is a concern and the Dukes tried to address that via the portal. It should also be mentioned that Punter Ryan Hanson returns, he’s one of the best in the nation.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: This schedule is quite favorable. There’s no overwhelming challenges out of conference. North Carolina is of course the headliner game, that’s a huge opportunity for the Dukes to prove they’re still going to be the same. Gardner-Webb is dealing with a coaching change and isn’t likely to be a threat, Ball State has a few things to figure out. There’s some danger to the Charlotte opener, such a portal heavy team is tough to prepare for but the 49ers are also just as likely to be trying to sort out their new pieces. The Dukes are in the loaded Sun Belt east but received a massive break with their draw from the west as they get ULM/Southern Miss the only 2 teams in the conference to not reach a bowl last season. Still the game at Appalachian State is the one to circle.

Vegas Projection: James Madison’s win total is set at 8.5 with the odds geared toward the under. There’s some regression expected for the Dukes but not too much. They’re 4th in Sun Belt title odds at +750, which is a pretty nice payout for the chances they have to win it.

2024 Best Case: James Madison isn’t going anywhere. The Dukes show that with dominating wins the first 2 games and even though they get an undefeated North Carolina on the road they aren’t stopping the Dukes surprise the nation with a dominating 34-10 victory over the Heels. JMU keeps it rolling marching past everyone in their path to keep their undefeated season going, they get an especially satisfying 45-7 victory over Old Dominion to set up a huge grudge match against the team that ended their unbeaten season a year ago, Appalachian State. Except this time Appalachian State is also undefeated with a win over Clemson. This massive winner take all showdown gets national attention with College GameDay visiting and it’s a back and forth battle but the Dukes make every play needed in the 4th quarter and wear down the Mountaineers defense to win the game and clear their path in the Sun Belt. The Dukes crush Marshall to close the regular season undefeated but it’s a playoff play-in game in the Sun Belt championship because Texas State is also undefeated. The Dukes aren’t worried and roll past the Bobcats to crash the playoff. They get matched up with Michigan once they get there and it’s a physical back and forth game that flies by with both teams running a lot but the Dukes force a couple key 4th quarter turnovers to upset the Wolverines. In the next round they find Florida State waiting for them and JMU frustrates DJ U all game to stun the Noles and crash the semis. The run ends there against Georgia but it’s one that will be talked about for ages. Bob Chesney believes in what can happen at this program and turns down bigger jobs to stay. Meanwhile all anyone else in the state can do is look on, Virginia belongs to the Dukes now.

2024 Worst Case: Maybe this is too much change. Things don’t come into place and they struggle more than expected. JMU struggles in an opening double digit loss to Charlotte to open the season and after beating Gardner-Webb they’re blown out by North Carolina. They’re 1-2 with a brutal conference schedule waiting. It’s a season of turmoil at QB coupled with a defense that disappoints. Overall they end up fading to 3-9 on the season. Old Dominion surprises to win 10 games, Virginia makes a bowl and both Liberty/Virginia Tech crash the playoff. In one season the Dukes fell behind everyone they’re in competition with and must find their way back.