State of the Program: Arizona Wildcats

Head Coach: Brent Brennan is entering his first season as the head coach of the Wildcats. Their coaching change was rather abrupt and unexpected but expectations will be very high right away. You can read more on Brennan and the hire grade here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/04/25/college-football-coach-hire-grades-arizona/

Program Outlook: Arizona enters the Big 12 with the most momentum the program has carried in some time. After struggling for such a long time Arizona finished last season as one of the sport’s hottest teams and now there’s hope they might be a true contender in the Big 12, but the Nick Saban retirement domino did some damage with the coaching change.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: Arizona returns a lot more experience than you’d expect after losing their head coach, there was a lot of tampering by other program to get kids to leave but they kept a lot of top players around. This starts with QB Noah Fifita he was pressed into action early last season and was a revelation for this offense. He’s not the tallest QB, and isn’t mobile but he can sling it everywhere, is deadly accurate and doesn’t make mistakes. His top weapon is also back Tetairoa McMillan. He’s tall but can move and is in competition to be the best receiver in college football, it also helps that McMillan and Fifita have played together since middle school so they have an unrivaled connection in today’s world. Fifita has other weapons to go to as well Montana Lemonious-Craig was an exciting transfer they brought in last season but he didn’t make the impact that was expected, potentially because he joined in the spring and wasn’t ready to be implemented in the offense, he’s a breakout player to watch. There’s some other transfers that will help as well. Besides the Fifita-McMillan connection probably the biggest recruiting win for Brennan was keeping this group of offensive linemen around, the Oline was a huge strength for Arizona last year which was something they hadn’t seen in a long time in Tucson. One key will be figuring out how to replace 1st round pick Jordan Morgan, when he opted out of the bowl game there was more pressure on Fifita than usual. Still, you can expect these guys to open some lanes for a revamped group of backs Jacory Croskey-Merritt from New Mexico was a huge pickup and they brought in Quali Conley one of San Jose State’s leading rushers along with talented Ole Miss transfer Kedrick Reescano. It’s going to be fun to see this offense operate with Dino Babers as the offensive coordinator, he was a great hire. This offense will run the veer and shoot scheme that will be very tough for defenses to defend but it’s also new to some of these players so there will be a little bit of clunkiness to it. Last year Arizona had a defense that did the job, they mostly bent but didn’t break and came up with a lot of clutch plays. There’s a lot of guys back from that defense too, but those returning starters aren’t up front. The entire defensive line is gone and they loaded up from the portal to rebuild it. Tre Smith was a great pass rusher at San Jose State and followed Brennan over, they also added some bigger meatier men (this is a running joke our podcast does from playing NCAA football) inside led by massive 347lb Chubba Maae from UC Davis. The linebackers will be a strength Jacob Manu does just about everything for this defense and next to him is former superstar recruit Justin Flowe who finally had a healthy season last year and started to produce as a result. Another big early recruiting win was in the secondary when Brennan got corner Tacario Davis to stay, again sometimes the biggest wins are keeping your own guys. Davis is one of the best corners in the nation and kept his toes in the portal for a while but ultimately he decided to stick around after being with the team in the spring. They’re loaded at safety as well. This secondary breaks up lots of passes and at the end of last season they started also forcing turnovers at a rapid rate, Arizona will be extremely dangerous if that continues.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: This is a pretty tough schedule but not the worst. Arizona gets a softer opening with both New Mexico and Northern Arizona figuring things out with new coaches. Then things ramp up in a hurry. Arizona faces Kansas State on the road in a massive non-conference game against a conference opponent. It may not count in the standings but it’ll be clear who’s a contender or not after the game. Arizona might have to face Utah on the road which isn’t fun but they do it after a bye, and notably after the Utes are coming off a road game at Oklahoma State. Following that, Arizona mostly gets the tougher conference games at home. BYU will be a tough environment but not much is expected of the Cougars, still Arizona must be careful in that one. The game at UCF is very dangerous because it’s in an environment that Arizona isn’t used to. Overall this schedule doesn’t deter me from thinking the Wildcats can compete for the conference, I think it’s one of the most favorable ones for contenders.

Vegas Projection: Arizona’s win total is set at 7.5 with the odds geared slightly to the over. It seems a little regression is expected. Arizona is only 7th in Big 12 title odds at +1200.

2024 Best Case: Arizona is ready to finish what got started at the end of last season. They win the first 2 games with ease before taking on Kansas State in a huge showdown. Fifita and McMillan torch Kansas State’s defense to lead them to a win. Arizona turns around and does the same thing to Utah the next week. The Wildcats command the Big 12 the rest of the season, avoiding upsets along the way and punishing rival Arizona State in the finale to finish the regular season undefeated. The Wildcats crush Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship and thanks to losses elsewhere they’re awarded with the number 1 seed. Not only that but the awards come flying in Fifita wins the Heisman along with many other awards for the team. Arizona takes down Ole Miss in their first playoff game and follows it up by beating Clemson in the semifinals. Arizona is fortunate in the national title because Ohio State upsets Georgia. Arizona pressures Will Howard all game and yet another great performance from Fifita/McMillan leads the Wildcats to an incredible unforseen national title run. It’s a run that will be remembered forever.

2024 Worst Case: It could have been such an amazing run but maybe installing a new offense and the new pieces are too much. Arizona wins the opening 2 games but the offense doesn’t look quite right and it becomes more apparent when they’re crushed by Kansas State and Utah. It gets even worse when the Wildcats lose 4 of the next 5 to be on the verge of missing a bowl. That is finalized once they lose at TCU and they can’t salvage the season in the Territorial Cup either, Arizona suffers an extremely disappointing home loss to the hated Sun Devils, allowing them to reach a bowl at 6-6 which Arizona finishes 4-8 and wonders where it all went wrong. McMillan is off to the NFL and Fifita transfers out looking for a new start.