State of the Program: New Mexico Lobos

Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall is entering his first season as the head coach of the Lobos. He’s a coach that’s had success before and looks to bring it here. You can read more about him and his grade here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/05/21/college-football-coach-hire-grades-new-mexico/

Program Outlook: New Mexico is probably one of the toughest jobs around. There aren’t many resources and it’s not easy to recruit here. It’s become apparent that even if you’ve been with the program for a long time this isn’t a job for beginners. While it was tough to see their rivals down south succeed they may have broken the code for how to succeed and it might require experience. Bronco Mendenhall gives this program the legitimacy on the field they haven’t had in a while and that’s a start.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: New Mexico is starting over. The offense was interesting last season after years of struggling Bryant Vincent finally got the unit going, mainly via importing a lot of players from UAB. Vincent is now at UL Monroe and a lot of the players that didn’t graduate followed him again. Devon Dampier might be the key piece at QB, he flashed some ability last season, not throwing a pick and showcasing his running ability that will fit this offense very well. He needs to stay healthy and there’s some good options at receiver to help they really emphasized finding some speed. They have some options at running back Andrew Henry looked solid when given opportunities and they brought in Eli Sanders from Iowa State along with Javen Jacobs from Arizona State. The offensive line is going to take some work, the entire unit is being pieced together from the portal so growing pains are likely here. New Mexico played good defense for a few years but last season the defense collapsed they couldn’t get after the quarterback, they couldn’t stop the run or force turnovers. There’s more experience back on the defense at least. New Mexico returns a lot of guys on the defensive line and there’s an influx of players from the portal to help create more of a rotation up front. They used the portal to find some more starters at linebacker and the secondary too. Tavian Combs might be the most talented player on the backend of the defense, but he’s battled injuries the last 2 seasons. Another thing that Bronco Mendenhall will help the Lobos with is discipline, they were one of the most penalized teams a year ago. I suspect that will change.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: This schedule is absolutely brutal. The non-conference does them no favors, if you compare to last season they trade Tennessee Tech a 4-7 FCS team a year ago for Montana State who is expected to be a top 4 FCS team and could probably beat half of the FBS teams. They also trade a game at UMass for a game at Auburn. So yes this is going to be difficult. The Montana State game will be a lot of fun in week 0, but New Mexico is over a touchdown underdog in that game and whether they got better against the run or not will be tested immediately against the Bobcats strong running offense. Arizona and Auburn are both rough games. They also essentially lost Nevada on the schedule for Washington State. Everyone they play in conference play is expected to finish higher than them in the standings and the teams ranked closest to them are all on the road. The Lobos could be improved and it might not show.

Vegas Projection: New Mexico’s win total is set at 2.5 with the odds geared toward the under. It’s a small payoff for the under on the Lobos so Vegas is clearly thinking they will struggle to win games.

2024 Best Case: Bronco Mendenhall immediately has this team ready to go and they improve more than expected. They prove themselves immediately by taking down Montana State in week 0. They drop the next 2 games but enter conference game strong by once again becoming Fresno State’s random nemesis beating the Bulldogs once again. Then New Mexico wins the game that means the most as they crush the Aggies in the Rio Grande Rivalry. The hot start continues with an upset over Air Force and they take down Utah State. At 5-2 they only need one more game to go bowling and they do just that. Winning 1 of the last 5 to reach a bowl game. They get to host it in their home stadium and even win the game for a massive first year under Bronco Mendenhall. It’s clear immediately that he’s changed this program for the better.

2024 Worst Case: This might take a while. Playing Montana State to open the season is just brutal and it takes a toll. The Lobos get destroyed 55-7 right out of the gate and it doesn’t get any better. They don’t get close at any point during the season to getting a win, the low point is of course being beaten 45-7 by hated rival New Mexico State. The Aggies don’t take much of a step back either meaning the state belongs to them and isn’t changing soon.