Head Coach: Dave Aranda is entering his 5th season as the head coach of the Bears with a 23-25 record. Aranda took over at a terrible time in 2020 which made that a lost year but followed it up with possibly the best season in Baylor history, winning the Big 12 and the Sugar Bowl in 2021 with a Top 5 AP Finish. It’s been all downhill ever since culminating in a disaster 3-9 season last year. Aranda is entering this year really looking to turn it around.
Program Outlook: Baylor’s history is all over the place. For a long time the Bears were one of the Big 12’s worst programs but then Art Briles came in and turned them into one of the top programs in the conference. Then we all know how that era ended and Baylor has been up and down since then. Baylor has recently gathered a ton of momentum on the recruiting trail with a campaign where the coaches have notably been wearing the “we pay players” shirts to signify the new era, it’s a bold proclamation and we’ll see if it works for them.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: Baylor is quietly one of the leading teams in returning production. The offense will receive a boost in multiple ways the first will be the addition of offensive coordinator Jake Spavital his time as a head coach didn’t work out but he is a great offensive coordinator, he comes over after bringing life to a once lifeless Cal offense last season. The next addition is former Toledo QB DeQuan Finn, he’s an absolutely electric playmaker both with his arm and his legs, he will truly bring a new element that Baylor’s offense hasn’t had in a while. That being said, life would be simple for the Bears if QB was their biggest problem spot on the offense but it wasn’t. The offensive line was the worst in the Big 12, they couldn’t block for the run and were a swinging gate in pass protection. They have experience back and brought in a few options from the portal so whatever improvement they find there will make or break the season. If the line improves, this offense has a trio of backs that can make things happen, along with Finn contributing on the ground and they have some weapons in the pass game too. The other big issue for Baylor was the defensive collapsed last year. Dave Aranda will be more hands on with this unit this season, but will that be enough. Their defensive line returns some experience but they really must improve, they couldn’t get after the quarterback at all last year and they weren’t able to land anyone from the portal. As a result a young secondary received baptism by fire last season they struggled but the time they had to hold in their coverage really made their jobs difficult. If they don’t have to defend as long this unit could become a strength.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: We are going to find out very quickly if the changes this offseason are going to work or not. This non-conference schedule is tough. There’s the obvious headliner in the “non-conference” game against conference foe Utah, but the other 2 games present challenges as well. Air Force and their triple option offense will be coming to town, they will be a huge challenge for the Bears. Don’t overlook Tarleton State either, they are eligible for the FCS playoffs for the first time this season and this has been a season they’ve been building for. The early portion of the conference slate will decide a lot, it’s tough to tell what Colorado will look like but facing them on the road after the physical game against Air Force will be tough. Baylor at least gets a lot of key games at home, facing Iowa State and West Virginia on the road will be tough. Texas Tech on the road is something I’d normally expect to be a challenge but the last 2 season in this series has seen the home team be blown out which is bizarre. Still, if things work well Baylor should rebound to a winning record and if they strike gold they could be a surprise Big 12 contender.
Vegas Projection: Baylor’s win total is set at 5.5 with the odds geared slightly toward the under. Vegas has chosen middle ground here not knowing what to expect of the Bears but they see it more likely that they’ll struggle again.
2024 Best Case: The offense finally has life and the defense gets closer to the performance level of previous seasons. Baylor opens with a dominating win and while they have to take their lumps at Utah they rebound to roll past Air Force, Colorado and BYU. Baylor wins a tough battle at Iowa State on the road and blows out Texas Tech to continue the weird trend of the road team winning the last few years. Baylor picks up big victories over Oklahoma State and TCU before taking a setback at West Virginia. From there Baylor is able to win out and reach the Big 12 championship. The Bears get a grudge match with Utah except it’s a conference game this time and it’s at a neutral site. They get revenge on the Utes and earn a birth to the playoff. They end up with a 4 seed and have to play Alabama in the next round so they do unfortunately lose that one but this is still a round further than Texas went and no one else from the state got close.
2024 Worst Case: The changes still don’t fix the offense and the defense struggles. Baylor squeezes past Tarleton State but suffer a miserable loss at the hands of Utah. It gets even worse when Baylor’s defense is carved up by Air Force’s option attack and the Bears lose by multiple scores. The “we pay players shirts” quickly becomes a mocking point because they lost to a program that notably doesn’t have NIL. Baylor then gets dunked on by Coach Prime’s Buffs team and fails to beat BYU at home. It just gets worse from there as Baylor loses out, particularly insulting is their losses to both Texas Tech and TCU who both win 10+ games. TCU even makes the college football playoff again. Meanwhile Baylor finishes 1-11 and needs to figure out what’s next to avoid becoming a consistent figure in the Big 12 basement.
Welcome to Updog Sports Talk 
Leave a comment