Head Coach: Joey McGuire is entering his 3rd season as the head coach at Texas Tech with a 15-11 record. He rallied the fanbase pretty quickly and his first season was impressive they went 8-5 taking down Texas, Oklahoma and Ole Miss along the way. Last season had high expectations but was a disappointment now they look to get back on the right foot.
Program Outlook: Texas Tech is always a thrilling program to watch, no program has sustained such a long reputation for basically only passing the ball all the time. It’s worked though, they constantly have great QBs and receivers. Now the Big 12 is more wide open and the Red Raiders will be looking to take the next step toward becoming conference title contenders.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: Texas Tech has a little bit of transition but they also brought in a fantastic portal class to help. They have Zach Kittley as their offensive coordinator, at his previous stop at Western Kentucky he helped a Bailey Zappe offense set offensive passing records so he knows how to coach a pass game, but he’s working on making some more adjustments they had a few ugly games last season in particular when they played West Virginia in a hurricane but kept throwing the ball like as if it was sunny. They have a QB in Behren Morton who can absolutely sling it, but he’s had major issues staying healthy which really hurt Tech a lot down the stretch last year. This has been a huge problem that has plagued the Red Raiders, in fact the last QB to start every game for Tech was Patrick Mahomes back in 2016, he’s already won 3 Super Bowls since Texas Tech last started the same QB all season! Just in case their backup is Cam Brown a transfer from West Georgia who impressed in camp, he’s a massive human and that mobility is expected to already carve out a role on the offense. Ok so if you made it this far, here’s the secret. Texas Tech does actually run the ball and they have a stud RB in Tahj Brooks to do it with, he ran for over 1,500 yards last year. Texas Tech had some reshuffling at receiver this offseason and that’s ok, it was a good group last season but perhaps one of the biggest reasons the Red Raiders disappointed was because they had no explosiveness from the position. Washington State transfer Josh Kelly is expected to lead the way and he will bring some of that, they also brought in Caleb Douglas from Florida and fans are excited to see how 5-star freshman phenom Micah Hudson. They also have great potential in a pair of Tight ends with the massive Mason Tharp and Arizona State transfer Jalin Conyers who has a lot of potential. The offensive line is still figuring out where all the pieces fit between returning players and some transfers but size definitely won’t be an issue. Texas Tech’s defense wasn’t great last year but it certainly wasn’t the defense (or lack thereof) of the Kliff Kingsbury era either. They wanted to emphasize being more impactful this offseason. The defensive line and pass rush in general is going to take some work they don’t have a lot back and they’re mostly relying on homegrown guys to get it done. Isaac Smith was at one point considered the next budding star up front but missed all of last season with a knee injury. The secondary has emphasized being more physical this offseason with a veteran group of starters, early indications in camp show they’ve been improving as a result.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: There’s good news and bad news with this schedule. First, the good news this schedule is easier than their last 2 years. The non-conference features games against Abilene Christian who’s coming off a 5-6 FCS season and shouldn’t threaten, and North Texas who lost a lot of players to the portal. The road game at Washington State won’t be easy but it certainly beats going on the road to face Oregon which was the original game they had. They avoid a lot of major players in the Big 12 they don’t face Utah, Kansas State, Kansas, or UCF. Now here’s the bad news, almost all of their biggest tests are on the road and the road generally hasn’t been friendly to the Red Raiders lately. A winning record should be the minimum but if they can start winning more on the road the Red Raiders can become more of a contender.
Vegas Projection: Texas Tech’s win total is set at 7.5 with the odds geared slightly to the over. Vegas sees the Red Raiders making a clean sweep of their home slate but is torn on whether they steal the Washington State game on the road.
2024 Best Case: Behren Morton finally stays healthy and the pass offense clicks exactly how it’s expected to while the defense comes together nicely and starts forcing turnovers. They sweep through the opening 5 games without much issue to set up a showdown with Arizona. It’s a back and forth battle but the Red Raiders pull off massive win to make a statement that they’ll contend for the conference. Texas Tech then stamps their authority over their in-state foes with dominating wins over Baylor and TCU. They squeeze past Iowa State in a tight battle and despite the question marks Colorado turns out to be pretty good, but not good enough as the Red Raiders handle them. Texas Tech’s undefeated run comes to an end against Oklahoma State but they beat West Virginia to clinch their Big 12 championship game spot against Kansas State. The Red Raiders take down the Wildcats to clinch a College Football Playoff birth and a bye. Then of course they find themselves matched up with Texas in their first playoff game. Their defense forces 3 Quinn Ewers turnovers to help them pull off a massive win for bragging rights. The Red Raiders then face Florida State next and take down the Noles to make it to the championship game. They end up meeting Georgia there and aren’t able to beat the Bulldogs but they’re competitive the whole way and they’ve sent a message that the Big 12 belongs to them.
2024 Worst Case: The passing game doesn’t click and the defense capsizes. It’s apparent they’re going to struggle when they’re blown out by Washington State in week 2 but it gets even worse when they’re upset at home by North Texas the following week. They only win 1 of the next 2 games before they enter the toughest part of the Big 12 slate, which doesn’t go well. Tech loses out including in blowouts to Baylor and TCU. The nightmare scenario only gets worse when TCU wins the conference and makes it to the National Championship where they lose to Texas.
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