State of the Program: Duke Blue Devils

Head Coach: Manny Diaz is entering his first season as the head coach at Duke. His career has been up and down but already his tenure here has lasted longer than the one he had at Temple. You can read more about this profile and hire grade here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/06/07/college-football-coach-hire-grades-duke/

Program Outlook: Duke is very much a basketball school and that’s always a challenge for them. They’re generally the ACC bottom feeder and it takes a great coach to get them out of it. David Cutcliffe did a great job for a while but things eventually fell apart. What Mike Elko did here was incredible instantly winning 9 games out of the blue and last season could have been so much more for Duke if not for injuries and now Elko is gone. There’s some hope that Manny Diaz can keep the momentum going but it remains to be seen on the field.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: There’s a couple big wins that will really help Manny Diaz out. First, he kept more of the roster from the portal than you’d think and second this staff is actually really good. They stole from within the conference convincing Jonathan Brewer to come over from SMU and somehow got Willie Simmons who as a HC turned Florida A&M into a SWAC power (despite some administrative issues) on the staff as a RBs coach. They got a talented QB in Maalik Murphy from Texas out of the portal. He’s got the arm to put the ball about anywhere he wants, the game was a little fast for him when he stepped in for a couple games last season at Texas but if he works on improving that decision making he could be special for this Duke offense. He’s going to be helped by an experienced group of receivers led by Jordan Moore. Jaquez Moore performed well backing up Jordan Waters (who’s now at NC State) last season and is ready for a bigger role they also brought in Star Thomas from New Mexico State. Most of the pieces are in place for this offense but how successful they are will be determined by the offensive line, all 5 starters from last season are gone including 2 guys who are now in the NFL. Duke’s defense was good last season but their biggest issue was stopping the run, not every team could run on them but when they did Duke lost for the most part. Most people saw this Duke defense is the season opening win over Clemson, the struggles against the run carried all season but the turnovers they forced was a one-off circumstance they seldom forced turnovers after that but could really stand to in order to help themselves this year. The defensive line will have some things to sort out with all 4 starters gone, but if they can figure it out they have the pieces around the rest of the defense. They have a great group of linebackers and this secondary is still going to be one of the best in the ACC. It’s going to be all about the lines for Duke.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: Duke must be careful opening the season with Elon, the Phoenix are a pretty tough FCS squad but still most likely a win for Duke. They play Northwestern after that and these 2 teams play so often they probably just need a trophy at this point. This will be the 8th meeting between these programs this decade and 24th overall. Northwestern has actually played Duke more often than long time Big Ten counterpart Penn State. It’s randomly funny how often these 2 play but it will be a tricky matchup. Duke will also have winnable games against UConn and Mid Tenn State, shout-out to the Blue Devils for playing the Blue Raiders on the road. The ACC schedule for Duke is pretty brutal. Sure they avoid Clemson but 7 of their 8 conference games are against teams 9th or higher in the ACC preseason poll (being 9th used to be low but now that the conference ballooned up to 17 teams it’s higher)

Vegas Projection: Duke’s win total is set at 5.5 with the odds geared heavily toward the under. Vegas seems pretty confident Duke won’t make a bowl.

2024 Best Case: Duke doesn’t miss a beat under Manny Diaz and Maalik Murphy proves to be a massive steal from the portal. Duke rolls past Elon, and then heads to the glorified practice facility to beat Northwestern. At one point Murphy shows off his arm strength in that game and throws the ball away into the lake while escaping pressure. Duke then rolls past UConn and Mid Tenn State to hit conference play unbeaten. The Blue Devils take down despised rival North Carolina for a massive win. They do fall victim to a trap game at Georgia Tech but it all becomes worth it when Duke hosts Florida State, their defense frustrates DJ Uiagalelei and forces 3 interceptions as a huge key to a massive upset win. Duke follows it up by beating SMU, winning at Miami and taking down NC State with forcing turnovers once again being key. Duke does take a loss to Virginia Tech but they close strong with a win over Wake Forest. The Blue Devils barely miss out on an ACC title birth, but they win their bowl game to finish strong.

2024 Worst Case: A coaching change means that Duke could quickly fade back to the basement and that’s what happens. Duke wheezes past Elon in the opener but they’re crushed by Northwestern, with the only highlight being Maalik Murphy throwing a ball into the lake while escaping pressure. Duke loses the battle up front and loses to UConn in a low scoring battle and then they’re taken down on the road by Mid Tenn State. They’re beaten soundly by North Carolina and it’s apparent this season is going bad fast. Duke winds up 1-11, Maalik Murphy struggles through the season leading the nation in picks. Meanwhile they can only look on as NC State makes a run in the playoff, North Carolina wins 10 games and even Wake Forest ends up winning a bowl.