State of the Program: Boise State Broncos

Head Coach: Spencer Danielson is entering his first full season as the head coach of the Boise State Broncos he currently has a 3-1 record and already has a Mountain West title to his name. You can read more on Danielson and his hire grade here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/02/16/college-football-coach-hire-grades-boise-state/

Program Outlook: Boise State is a program that quickly built an identity on punching above their weight. It was a progressive climb but they took the national stage by storm when they beat Oklahoma in a Fiesta Bowl that will be remembered as one of the best bowl games of all time, they followed it up with an incredible stretch from 2008-2011 where they won games on the big stage and never lost more than one game, they would have made the playoff every year under the current format. Ever since Chris Petersen left, it’s been more of a challenge, they haven’t found that consistently needed to reach the Big stage again, but this is a program with a ton of support and is in a bigger market than TV execs would like you to think (Boise is a rapidly growing city.) The time is now for the Broncos, if they can get things back rolling now anything is on the table for this program.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: There’s a lot of returning talent and they hit the portal for some massive pieces to help out. They utilized the portal to bring in one of the highest potential QBs in program history, Malachi Nelson. He came out of high school as the top QB and hand picked by Lincoln Riley to take over once Caleb Williams went to the NFL. It’s hard to tell exactly what happened, whether Nelson didn’t like the direction of the USC program, his coaching style or because Miller Moss turned out to be really good but Nelson transferred out. Nelson was expected to be the starter but in a shock announcement yesterday it appears the incumbent Maddux Madsen will start to open the season, he’s mobile and knows the offense. Madsen doesn’t quite have the upside of Nelson so it’s hard to tell what to expect out of the QB situation all year, this will be something to monitor. He will share the backfield with one of the best running backs in College Football Ashton Jeanty. They lost a few top receivers but they have some vets and younger guys ready to step up. They also have former 5 star receiver Chris Marshall in the fold, it would be huge for the Broncos if this is when he unlocks his potential. The offensive line was a strength for the vintage Boise State teams but has been a weakness ever since, with 4 starters back and a strong finish there’s a chance this unit is a strength again. The defense will be experienced as well. They have one of the best pass rushes in the country thanks to Ahmed Hassanein and the immensely talented Jayden Virgin-Morgan is primed to step up on the other side. They’ve got the defensive tackles and linebackers to be good against the run. The secondary units a lot from a unit that was mostly solid. Now I do say mostly because they experienced occasional meltdowns. The Washington game, end of the UCF game, end of the Colorado State game and the 2nd half of the Bowl game were rough for the secondary, but hopefully with this much experience they can clean that up.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: The schedule has some challenges but can also be favorable. They open with a low-key dangerous game at Georgia Southern. It’s a long trip in humidity and the Eagles tend to start the season hot so the Broncos may be careful. The next one is finally our return of seeing Boise State and Oregon play each other, it’s been a long wait (and sadly Oregon bailed on the other games so this is it.) Oregon is a scary opponent for the Broncos, the Ducks annihilated everyone in their path not named Washington last season so if Boise State gets blown out they need to make sure it doesn’t impact the rest of their season, most of the other programs on Oregon’s schedule will suffer the same fate. Boise State plays a Portland State team that could be improved but should be a game that win handily. Because Boise State already had Washington State scheduled so they’re one of the few teams in the Mountain West that faces both Washington State and Oregon State, fortunately both are on the blue. The Mountain West typically loves to cannibalize itself, but I wonder if the conference tried to protect Boise State a bit knowing what they could do because there’s tests at UNLV and Wyoming but that’s about it. Everyone else on the conference schedule will be huge underdogs to the Broncos. Stay competitive in the Oregon game, handle business otherwise and the possibilities for the Broncos are endless.

Vegas Projection: Boise State’s win total is set at 9.5 with the odds geared toward the under. The Broncos are also huge favorites to win the Mountain West at -125, these are extremely impressive odds for a team that’s in a conference that frequently cannibalized itself the last decade. Boise State has +400 odds to reach the playoff, better odds than Oklahoma or USC.

2024 Best Case: It’s finally time, after finding different ways to struggle in recent seasons Boise State is finally ready to return to the top of the conference and to relevance in the College Football landscape. The Broncos take care of business against Georgia Southern to set up a showdown with Oregon. The Broncos are ready for the challenge. Malachi Nelson takes the job, steps in and has his breakthrough performance, Ashton Jeanty helps the offense control the ball and the defense forces multiple Dillon Gabriel turnovers on their way to a stunning victory, they did it Boise State is finally back on the big stage. The Broncos carry that momentum through the rest of the regular season. They don’t mess around taking care of business the whole way avoiding upsets and winning their big games against UNLV, Wyoming, Washington State and Oregon State. The Broncos blow out Fresno State to win the Mountain West championship and on the backs of the huge Oregon victory they manage to avoid being given the 12 seed. Thanks to strong efforts elsewhere they don’t receive a bye but they get rewarded handsomely with a 6 seed and Texas has to come to the Blue Turf. The uniqueness of the matchup gets a lot of attention but it’s the Boise State offense that puts on a show behind a big game from Jeanty on the ground and Nelson through the air the Broncos pull off another big win, but they’re not done yet. They get Utah in t the next round and manage to take down the Utes as well. Boise State loses a close game to Clemson in the semifinals to end their amazing run but it’s one that will be remembered for a long time, but most notably Boise State football is finally back.

2024 Worst Case: It’s yet another offseason of false hope for the Broncos. The Madsen/Nelson QB controversy never ends and it leads to issues with the offense all season. To open the season their secondary struggles to stop Georgia Southern is an upset loss to open the season, and they follow it up by being blown out by Oregon. Once the Broncos lose at hope to Washington State it’s apparent the playoff hopes are done. The Broncos don’t come up with a sudden rally in Mountain West play either. They finish the regular season 6-6 and lose their bowl game to finish a disappointing season with a losing record.