Head Coach: Troy Calhoun is entering his 18th season as the head coach of the Falcons with a 130-82 record. He’s one of the longest tenured head coaches in the sport and it’s truly impressive what he’s done here. They’ve had 5 10+ win seasons and 11 of his 18 seasons have featured 8+ wins. They’ve also gone 5-0 in bowl games the last 8 seasons.
Program Outlook: Air Force is always going to be a consistent contender in the conference under Troy Calhoun, they’re a team you always have to watch for. Last season had the potential to be their biggest season yet but injuries derailed them in November as they went 0-4 that month but 9-0 the rest of the season. They haven’t won the Mountain West yet but they’re due to do so eventually.
How does the 2024 Roster look?: Service Academies are almost always toward the bottom of College Football in returning production. There’s no redshirts so they often have a group of seniors starting, they graduate and then the next group of seniors steps in, but this season will test just how much turnover an academy can withstand while things have been running well. Air Force returns just one starter on the offense and it’s a receiver, if you know anything about their offense you know they don’t use them often. Still, this is Air Force the backs who step in will be solid and the offensive line is still going to be comprised of upper classmen who knows the system. How this offense works will hinge on what the Falcons have at QB, they may not throw often but the QB makes all the reads in this system so whoever runs it needs to run it well. They have guys who have the talent to be dynamic at the position, but it will come down to who can execute the best. Air Force had an awesome defense last season but only 3 starters are back, still there’s some guys who have experience as part of the rotation and this defense is still going to be aggressive to bother opposing offenses. The secondary returns a couple corners who can make plays but the safeties will be new. Still, this is Air Force there’s a new group of upperclassmen coming in and while sometimes you wonder with new starters if they can keep it up, but this is a well oiled machine, it’s very likely the new guys will step up.
Screenshot from fbschedules.com1
2024 Schedule Thoughts: This schedule is pretty favorable for the Falcons. Generally Air Force has a pretty set non-conference schedule, they open with a FCS team, play Army and Navy for the Commander in Chief’s Trophy, then there’s one open space. This season they get a rare opportunity against a Big 12 foe in Baylor and with the arrangement with the Pac-2 they also face Oregon State at home (first time the Falcons and Beavers have ever met somehow.) The conference schedule is very favorable too, they avoid Boise State/UNLV, and get Fresno State/Colorado State at home. One of their toughest games will be facing Wyoming in Laramie. Overall the Falcons face 8 teams that didn’t make a bowl last season. Winning those big games will be key but Air Force certainly has a chance to win 8 games.
Vegas Projection: Air Force’s win total is set at 6.5 with the odds geared toward the over. This is a very low total as is common for academies. I managed to get them as plus money early on but now there’s not much payoff.
2024 Best Case: This is a machine and there’s no reason the Falcons won’t keep going. Air Force opens the season by dominating the opening games and then their option proves to be unstoppable for the Baylor defense as the Falcons get a massive win. Air Force outlasts a challenge at Wyoming in Laramie. They take down Navy and Army along the way to continuing their win streak and claiming the Commander in Chief’s Trophy. They win home showdowns with Fresno State and Oregon State to set themselves up to finish the regular season undefeated. They get a huge Mountain West title showdown with Boise State, the Falcons option offense frustrates the Broncos allowing them to pull off the massive win and clinch a playoff birth. Air Force gets a matchup with Ohio State in the opening round and the nation celebrates the option in the playoff. Air Force does even better controlling the clock to keep Ohio State’s offense off the field. They pull off a massive upset over the Buckeyes remaining unbeaten against their program. Air Force loses in the next round but this is already a run for the ages.
2024 Worst Case: Maybe there is a such thing as too much turnover. Air Force wins the opener but things are clearly wrong when they lose to San Jose State and are beaten soundly by Baylor. They lose control of the clock in a loss to Wyoming. Air Force loses to Navy, is upset by New Mexico, loses to Colorado State and Army as they suffer a stretch of losing to rivals. They end the season an immensely disappointing 2-10. The disappointing season doesn’t stop a desperate power conference program from making the move to get Calhoun but this time he’s receptive to it and leaves.
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