College Football Playoff 1st Round: SMU Mustangs (11-2) at Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2)
Key Facts: This matchup will come down to a few key factors. How is Penn State going to handle SMU’s speed? We saw Oregon’s in the Big Ten championship give Penn State’s defense tons of issues, SMU is very similar to the Ducks. Avoiding errors is going to be a huge key for SMU they made a lot of them against Clemson in the ACC championship that cost them, the Mustangs are a little more turnover prone than most teams in the playoffs, although that number is somewhat inflated by the ridiculous game against Duke where they gave up 8 turnovers and won. Their pass defense will need solutions for stopping Tyler Warren, it’s a weakness overall for SMU and they had a few blown coverages against Clemson. On the other side we’ll see how Drew Allar handles the game on his shoulders because while SMU doesn’t stop the pass very well, they do a great job shutting down the run. Both teams are great at getting after opposing QBs.
Previous Meetings: These programs have played twice, and haven’t played since 1978. Penn State holds the only win in the series that 1978 game in State College where Penn State rallied from a 21-12 halftime deficit to win 26-21. This was just before the Pony Express days were set to begin for SMU. The first meeting between these programs was a historic one, the 1948 Cotton Bowl which is known as the first interracial bowl game. The teams tied that day 13 all, but a historic moment nonetheless!
Motivation Edge: Penn State is of course known for having one of the best home environments in the sport, expect that to be no different here. Penn State was unlucky with the kickoff time, however, Beaver Stadium is much crazier at night compared to earlier in the day. SMU meanwhile will be motivated to prove they belong after they thought their playoff hopes could have ended at one point, this was a new lease on life for them. It will likely be cold so how they handle that will be another test.
College Football Playoff 1st Round: Clemson Tigers (10-3) at Texas Longhorns (11-2)
Key Facts: This game is likely to be low scoring driven by what Texas does. The Longhorns have been very good on the defensive side of the ball but their offense has lagged behind. There’s really nothing that impresses me about the offense, they aren’t as dynamic at the skill positions compared to last season. Quinn Ewers doesn’t have a lot open and he’s served up points for the opposition in several games recently. You wouldn’t think it but Clemson’s pass attack has been pretty solid this year, statistically it’s the best Texas has faced outside of Georgia and you know how those games went. Clemson’s defense feels like it’s a step back from what it normally is, stopping the run in particular has been an issue for the Tigers.
Previous Meetings: This is a FIRST TIME MATCHUP! Playoff edition! Yes these two big name programs have never played. Texas in general has a limited history with the ACC, the Longhorns have also never played Florida State and more than half their games against current ACC members were against SMU (who Texas once shared a conference with.)
Motivation Edge: Clemson is going to be excited for this one since they get another shot at making a run. Going on the road will be tough, but you wonder if Texas is focused on what’s next instead of this game. Always a possibility. That being said, this game is pretty huge for the Longhorns who haven’t won a bowl under Sark yet (although they won’t have to face Michael Penix this time.)
College Football Playoff 1st Round: Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) at Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
Key Facts: This is a strange matchup of two teams with offensive minded coaches that are led by their defenses this year. It’s going to be interesting how both teams handle each other’s pass rushers both can get after the opposing QB but neither team blocks particularly well. Tennessee has a dynamic run game with Dylan Sampson and you can run on the Buckeyes if you stick to it. Ohio State once again has the best group of receivers in the country, but will they remember to use them? How big of a game is this? Is this a Penn State level game or bigger? That will likely determine Ryan Day’s success in it.
Previous Meetings: These two programs are only a state apart and yet they’ve only met once! In the 1996 Citrus bowl a Peyton Manning led Tennessee took down an Eddie George led Ohio State team 20-14. The effort was led by Manning and his receivers making some big plays. I think this Manning guy went on to have some success in the NFL if I recall correctly.
Motivation Edge: Ohio State will be determined to show the Michigan mess is not their identity. Tennessee’s team has been criticized all year and they’re going to want to prove themselves on the big stage. These teams are regionally pretty close but never play so there’s long time bragging rights here. It will be curious to see how much Orange is in the stands, Tennessee fans managed to sneak Ohio State’s early sale codes and may have snatched up a lot of tickets.
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