State of the Program: Buffalo Bulls

Head Coach: Pete Lembo is his first year as the head coach of the Bulls. This isn’t his first rodeo in the MAC. You can read more on his coach profile and hire grade here: https://updogsportstalk.com/2024/05/24/college-football-coach-hire-grades-buffalo/

Program Outlook: Buffalo is typically considered one of the toughest jobs in the MAC, but that doesn’t mean you can’t have success here. Lance Leipold is of course the best example because he brought the program two of their best seasons ever but there’s been other winning seasons as well. There’s been a couple down years but there’s hope the Bulls can get back to competing soon.

How does the 2024 Roster look?: As you can expect with a coaching change there’s a lot of transition with the roster. Buffalo’s starting QB the last 2 years is now at Eastern Michigan and it looks their former backup CJ Ogbonna who carved out a role last season because of his mobility. He will add a different element to the offense but needs to develop more as a passer. Jack Shields a transfer from Old Dominion will push him for the job, Shields had 2 starts last season for the Monarchs. He struggled in a hurricane against Texas A&M Commerce, but had a fantastic game against Marshall. The Bulls top 2 RBs are gone so it looks like the RB room will be led by Jacqez Barksdale who played well in one start against Kent State last year, but they also have Al-Jay Henderson who played a bit in 2022 but got buried behind Barksdale on the depth chart last year. Receiver is a huge mystery for the Bulls because very little production returns. Whether it was because of how late in the cycle Lembo took over or he just didn’t want to utilize it, the Bulls didn’t use the portal much but receiver is one of the few spots they made a pickup. The Bulls traditionally are pretty strong up front and they have a few studs on the offensive line, I like the starting 5 but there’s no experienced depth. Buffalo’s defense took some time to get going last season but rounded into form in Mac play. The circumstances at Utah State were not good but Buffalo certainly got lucky from them. LB Shaun Dolac the star of the Bulls defense transferred to Utah State, but he was part of the spring exodus from that program and came back to Buffalo. Dolac was hurt last season so hopefully he will be healthy this year. The Bulls will have a solid front and linebacking core around him, but they will need to find ways to get better against the run despite being undersized up front. The secondary is expected to be a strength as well, the Bulls traditionally tend to have good corners and the duo of Charles McCartherens and Jayden Oliver are no exception to that. Another thing that bares mentioning is this is a Pete Lembo team, they’re going to be really good on special teams, in such a balanced conference that could help them squeeze out some extra wins.

Screenshot from fbschedules.com¹

2024 Schedule Thoughts: Buffalo has some opportunity with this schedule because it’s pretty light overall. Still, the opener is going to be a huge key to Buffalo’s season. The last 2 years the Bulls have been tormented by Patriot League teams, they open with Lafayette the defending Patriot League champs, and odds on favorites to win it again. They may have to take their lumps against Missouri but UMass/UConn are both fun regional matchups that are winnable for the Bulls. The new pod system the MAC uses helps Buffalo a lot because they’re guaranteed matchups with Akron and Kent State the 2 MAC programs that invest more heavily into basketball. Outside of having to face Toledo the rest of the draw in general isn’t bad. Buffalo has a lot of questions themselves but there’s room for them to squeeze out a bowl birth.

Vegas Projection: Buffalo’s win total is set at 4.5 with the odds geared toward the over. Vegas expects the Bulls to stay roughly the same despite the coaching change.

2024 Best Case: Lembo pushes the right buttons and the Bulls are ready to run. They roll past Lafayette to go 1-0 until they take their lumps against Missouri. The Bulls take down UMass, upset NIU and take down UConn for northeast superiority. The Bulls go 2-2 in the next 4 games before winning out the closing stretch for a 9-3 record. They’re rewarded with a game against Rutgers in the Quicklane bowl, the Bulls take full advantage and take down the Scarlet Knights for more regional superiority. It’s clear they’ll be a team to reckon with in the conference under Lembo.

2024 Worst Case: Maybe this will take a while. Buffalo opens the season losing to Lafayette for their 3rd consecutive loss to a Patriot League team and the jokes roll in about how Buffalo should be next in the Patriot League’s expansion list. Missouri isn’t a good recovery point the Bulls are blown out in that one before taking a loss to UMass, the Bulls lose to NIU and even UConn for a nightmare 0-5 start. That start eventually turns to 0-8 before the Bulls finally find a win in one of the last 4 games. It may be a new era but with another losing season it becomes a concern that they may never find their way back to the top of the MAC.